MD-11F grounding pushes U.S. carriers to smaller freighters

The grounding of MD-11 freighters is reshaping U.S. air-cargo capacity, with new data showing a clear divergence between domestic and international networks. While domestic integrators have seen a 3% drop in capacity following the grounding, international operations remain largely unaffected as replacement aircraft were sourced from domestic fleets.

According to recent data from Rotate, an air cargo consultancy platform, most replacement capacity for grounded MD-11 freighters has been drawn from domestic fleets, with utilisation of A300 and B767 aircraft rising by 5–10% to cover the shortfall.

Following the crash of UPS Flight 2976, which involved an MD-11F, UPS grounded its entire MD-11F fleet on November 7 after receiving a recommendation from Boeing. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) later issued an Emergency Airworthiness Directive requiring inspections and corrective actions for all MD-11 and MD-11F aircraft before they can return to service. FedEx, another major operator of the type, has also grounded its MD-11F fleet. UPS operates 27 MD-11Fs, FedEx has 29, and Western Global Airlines has 15, however, all of them are already parked and not in service, according to data from Planespotters.net.

The Rotate data indicates that around 70% of MD-11 freighter capacity had been deployed on domestic U.S. routes. Since MD-11s accounted for just 0.4% of global international air-cargo capacity, the direct impact of their grounding on international networks has been minimal.

The analysis further notes that international capacity would only face significant disruption if long-haul aircraft such as the B777 or B747 were withdrawn from international service to replace MD-11 operations.

Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting at Rotate, noted in his statement to The STAT Trade Times that until recently, roughly 50 MD-11F freighters remained in service, each flying an average of six to seven hours per day. He added that current data indicate FedEx and UPS have largely absorbed the loss of MD-11 capacity using their existing fleets. Rotate’s live capacity data, he said, shows no direct evidence that either carrier has leased additional aircraft to compensate for the grounding, though he cautioned that this does not rule out the possibility, as such activity may simply not yet be reflected in the dataset.

Maarten Wormer, Head of Consulting at Aevean, a consulting firm specialising in aviation and logistics, also shared an analysis that reinforces these findings. Aevean’s data indicates that domestic U.S. integrator networks have shifted toward smaller-gauge freighters, effectively compensating for most of the grounded MD-11F capacity. The data notes that MD-11Fs account for roughly 13% of domestic integrator lift, and both FedEx and UPS have responded by deploying additional A300F, B767F and B757F aircraft. For the most recent week of data, domestic capacity registered a 3% decline compared with preceding weeks.

According to the preliminary report issued by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), left-pylon cracks were identified in the UPS MD-11F crash.