AI drives global trade growth

The global race to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure is providing a significant boost to world trade, offsetting some of the impact of higher tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the latest DHL Globalisation Tracker.

Released by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business, the report analyses more than 30 million data points covering international flows of trade, capital, information and people. The latest edition is the first to be published under the DHL Globalisation Tracker name, replacing the former DHL Global Connectedness Tracker.

Global goods trade recorded its strongest first-half growth in 15 years during the first six months of 2026, excluding the exceptional rebound following the Covid-19 pandemic. The report identifies rising demand for goods supporting AI infrastructure, including semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, as a key driver.

AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of global goods trade growth in 2025, with their contribution rising sharply to 76% in the first quarter of 2026, based on WTO and OECD analysis.

John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, said, “The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs. Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”

Global effects of Iran war and tariffs remain limited
At the same time, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted major global trade routes, although the impact was largely concentrated in economies heavily reliant on the waterway. Trade values declined 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates during the first five months of 2026 compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.

Trade policy also emerged as a drag on global commerce. While US tariffs climbed to their highest levels in decades, their broader impact remained limited, partly because the US accounted for only 13% of global imports in recent years. Moreover, around half of US imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026.

Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, said, “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialised producers work together across countries. It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”

East Asia and the Pacific records strongest trade growth
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth among all regions, with trade values rising 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Europe followed with 12% growth, while Sub-Saharan Africa recorded an 11% increase.

The region also saw a greater proportion of its trade remain within its borders, with the share rising from 57% in 2025 to 60% during the first five months of 2026. The increase was supported by strong regional supply chains catering to growing demand linked to the AI boom.

Sharp U.S.–China decoupling, but no global split
The weakening of economic ties between the US and China has been one of the most notable shifts in global trade flows, but its overall impact on the world economy remains limited. US-China trade accounted for 3.5% of global trade at its peak in 2015, before declining to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. Their share of international business investment is even smaller, at less than 1%. At the same time, major US allies have largely maintained their trade relationships with China, challenging the view that US-China decoupling is pushing the global economy into two competing blocs.

The DHL Globalisation Tracker is a concise report and interactive platform that provides regular insights into globalisation and international trade. It complements the DHL Globalisation Report, which has been published regularly since 2011.