Global air freight in 2026: Slower growth, stronger structural demand

The global air cargo industry enters 2026 after several years of intense change. The period following the pandemic was marked by sharp swings in demand, extreme pricing cycles and repeated disruptions across supply chains. By 2025, however, the market had begun to recalibrate. Capacity returned, trade flows adjusted and air cargo settled into a more stable, though still complex, operating environment.

Rather than a dramatic rebound or a sudden downturn, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of moderation. Growth is expected to continue, but at a slower and more controlled pace. The drivers of demand are also evolving. E-commerce remains important, but it no longer dominates the market in the way it once did. Instead, a wider mix of high-value, time-critical and technology-driven cargo is increasingly defining air freight demand.

This transition reflects a broader shift in the role of air cargo. It is no longer seen only as a premium transport option for urgent goods. It has become a structural pillar of global trade, supporting complex supply chains that require speed, reliability and flexibility in an uncertain world.

Global demand outlook: Slower growth, stronger foundations
According to IATA, global air cargo demand is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, following an estimated 3.1% increase in 2025. While this represents a slowdown compared with the double-digit growth recorded between 2023 and 2024, it signals stability rather than weakness.

The sharp rise in volumes during the earlier period was driven largely by e-commerce expansion and front-loading ahead of trade and tariff changes. That phase is now passing. In its place is a more balanced demand environment, where growth is supported by multiple sectors rather than a single dominant driver.

IATA’s data shows that air cargo continues to outperform overall global trade growth. Even as world merchandise trade is forecast to expand only modestly, air freight is expected to maintain positive momentum. This underlines the sector’s growing importance for industries that depend on speed, precision and resilience.

Insights from Dimerco’s January 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report reinforce this picture of steady but moderating growth. Dimerco notes that air freight demand across Asia-Pacific remained resilient through the end of 2025, supported by technology exports, electronics production and continued diversification of manufacturing away from single-country dependence. While growth rates have cooled from earlier peaks, shipment volumes have stabilised at structurally higher levels than before the pandemic, suggesting that air cargo demand is normalising rather than weakening as the market moves into 2026.

Air cargo’s performance in 2025 provides a strong indication of how it will behave in 2026. When faced with policy shifts, economic uncertainty and changing trade patterns, the industry demonstrated its ability to adapt quickly and effectively. This adaptability has become one of its defining strengths.

The changing shape of e-commerce demand
E-commerce has been one of the most powerful forces shaping air cargo over the past decade. However, its role is clearly evolving. Data and commentary from Freightos and Xeneta suggest that while volumes remain resilient, the pace of growth is slowing.

Freightos notes that changes to de minimis rules, particularly in the United States, initially led to a sharp decline in China–US e-commerce flows. Yet this did not translate into a broader market slowdown. Exporters adjusted their strategies, carriers redeployed capacity to other trade lanes, and demand shifted to alternative markets. As a result, global air cargo volumes still recorded growth during 2025.

Xeneta’s market data supports this view. While air cargo volumes continued to rise, the long-running surge in cross-border e-commerce, particularly from China, began to level off. This signals a transition rather than a reversal. E-commerce is no longer expanding at exceptional rates, but it remains an important and embedded part of air freight demand.

Looking ahead to 2026, further changes to de minimis rules are expected to reshape flows once again. The European Union has already announced plans to end its exemptions by 2028, with the possibility of earlier implementation once systems are in place.

Dimerco’s data shows that while cross-border e-commerce volumes have slowed, particularly on China–US lanes, overall export activity across Asia has remained supported by alternative flows. Southeast Asia, Taiwan and South Korea continued to record steady outbound air cargo demand in late 2025, driven by electronics, components and industrial inputs. According to Dimerco, this shift reflects a broader rebalancing of air cargo demand, where e-commerce remains relevant but no longer defines market direction on its own.

New demand drivers: From volume to value
As e-commerce growth slows, other sectors are taking on greater importance. One of the most significant is high-technology manufacturing, particularly semiconductors and hardware linked to artificial intelligence.

Freightos highlights microchips and AI-related hardware as key demand drivers heading into 2026. These products are high-value, time-sensitive and often fragile, making air freight the preferred transport mode. Their growing importance reflects a broader trend in which air cargo demand is increasingly shaped by value density rather than sheer volume.

Pharmaceuticals continue to play a central role as well. The need for temperature-controlled logistics remains strong, supported by global healthcare requirements and more complex supply chains. High-tech equipment, specialised machinery and premium express shipments further reinforce the relevance of air freight.

Dimerco highlights semiconductors, electronics components and advanced manufacturing as central demand drivers heading into 2026. The report notes sustained air freight demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure, including chips, servers and related hardware, which require fast and secure transport. These shipments are typically high in value and sensitive to delays, reinforcing air freight’s role as a critical enabler of technology supply chains across Asia-Pacific.

This shift towards value-driven cargo is reshaping how airlines and logistics providers approach the market. Reliability, service quality and specialised handling are becoming just as important as capacity and speed.

Capacity dynamics: Belly returns, freighters remain essential
One of the defining developments of recent years has been the return of passenger belly capacity. By 2025, much of this capacity had been restored on major long-haul routes, easing the severe supply constraints seen earlier in the decade.

However, the return of belly capacity has not reduced the strategic importance of dedicated freighters. According to Anand Kulkarni, Head of Global Markets at Lufthansa Cargo, freighters remain a cornerstone of long-term air cargo strategy, even as belly capacity plays a growing role in overall supply.

Kulkarni notes that freighters provide payload capacity, routing flexibility and operational reliability that passenger aircraft alone cannot offer. This is particularly important for time-critical, temperature-sensitive and outsize shipments, as well as for markets with limited passenger connectivity. In practice, belly and freighter capacity complement each other, helping airlines maintain resilient networks.

IATA data supports this view. While belly cargo capacity expanded strongly in 2025, growth in dedicated freighter capacity remained limited. Delayed aircraft deliveries and an ageing global freighter fleet continue to restrict supply growth. Passenger-to-freighter conversions provide some relief, but suitable aircraft are increasingly scarce.

From a regional perspective, Dimerco observes that capacity growth across Asia-Pacific remains uneven. While belly capacity has returned on major intercontinental routes, freighter availability remains constrained on several intra-Asia and Asia–Europe lanes. Aircraft delivery delays and fleet ageing continue to limit rapid capacity expansion, particularly for widebody freighters. As a result, Dimerco expects capacity discipline to persist into 2026, supporting a more balanced supply environment despite slower demand growth.

Rates and yields: Stability with selective pressure
Air cargo yields have normalised from the extraordinary highs of the pandemic years, but they remain well above pre-Covid levels. IATA data shows that average global air freight yields in 2025 were still around 30% higher than in 2019.

Freightos expects rates in 2026 to remain relatively stable, supported by the industry’s ability to move capacity quickly in response to demand changes. Xeneta’s analysis also points to a market where supply and demand are broadly aligned, even as competitive pressure persists on certain lanes.

There is growing concern that demand may, at times, increase faster than capacity, particularly given ongoing delivery delays for new freighters. This could place upward pressure on rates from the supply side, even in a slower growth environment according to Freightos.

Dimerco’s rate analysis suggests that air freight pricing across Asia-Pacific has largely stabilised, following gradual softening through 2025. While spot rates have eased from earlier highs, they remain above pre-pandemic norms, especially on technology-heavy corridors. The report notes that carriers have become more disciplined in capacity deployment, helping prevent sharp rate declines. For 2026, Dimerco expects rates to remain range-bound, with short-term volatility driven by seasonal demand rather than structural oversupply.

At the same time, outcomes are likely to differ sharply by segment. According to Anand Kulkarni of Lufthansa Cargo, premium products such as express, pharmaceuticals and high-tech cargo tend to show greater resilience, while volume-driven flows on highly competitive routes are more likely to remain under pressure.

Europe: A mature market facing structural challenges
Europe’s air cargo outlook reflects many global trends, but with additional regional constraints. Kulkarni describes Europe as a mature and highly competitive market, where demand is closely linked to industrial activity and consumer confidence.

With economic growth expected to remain subdued, Europe is unlikely to see a broad-based recovery in air freight demand in 2026. Instead, growth is expected to be selective, focused on premium and time-critical segments where reliability and quality matter more than pure volume.

Europe continues to play a vital role in global supply chains, particularly on Europe–Asia trade lanes and in high-value logistics. However, the region faces structural challenges, including high regulatory requirements, rising labour and energy costs, and increasing operational complexity at major hubs.

To remain competitive, operators are investing heavily in efficiency and reliability. Lufthansa Cargo’s ongoing modernisation of its Frankfurt hub reflects this focus. By combining automation, digitalisation and modern infrastructure, the project is designed to improve handling efficiency and process stability while maintaining round-the-clock operations.

Asia-Pacific: The engine of growth
Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the fastest-growing air cargo region in 2026. IATA forecasts demand growth of around 6%, well above the global average.

Dimerco’s outlook aligns closely with IATA’s regional forecast, identifying Asia-Pacific as the most resilient air cargo market entering 2026. The report highlights continued strength in exports from China, Taiwan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, supported by electronics, automotive components and industrial machinery. While growth is expected to moderate, Asia-Pacific is likely to remain the primary source of incremental air cargo demand, underpinned by manufacturing activity and complex regional supply chains.

The region’s strong manufacturing base, expanding technology sector and central role in global trade continue to support air freight demand. In 2025, Asia–Europe emerged as the fastest-growing trade lane, reflecting shifting export patterns and strong demand for high-value goods.

These trends are expected to continue into 2026, even as growth moderates. Asia-Pacific is likely to remain the primary engine of air cargo demand, supported by electronics, e-commerce and industrial shipments.

North America and the Middle East: A more cautious outlook
North America’s outlook for 2026 is more subdued. IATA expects demand in the region to be flat or slightly negative, reflecting the fading impact of earlier front-loading and ongoing trade uncertainty.

The Middle East, which expanded rapidly during the pandemic years, is also expected to face stagnation. Increased competition, shifting trade flows and network adjustments are reshaping the region’s role in global air cargo.

Despite these challenges, both regions remain strategically important. Their performance in 2026 will depend on how effectively carriers adapt capacity and align networks with evolving demand.

Market size and long-term growth signals
Longer-term market studies reinforce the view that air freight’s fundamentals remain strong. IMARC Group estimates that the global air freight market was valued at over $335 billion in 2025 and expects steady expansion in the coming years, supported by cross-border trade, e-commerce and digitalisation.

Global Growth Insights also points to sustained medium-term growth, highlighting rising demand for express services, cold chain logistics and high-value cargo. These studies suggest that while near-term growth may slow, air freight’s long-term trajectory remains positive.

For 2026, this provides important context. The market is consolidating rather than contracting, with growth increasingly driven by structural demand rather than temporary shocks.

A year defined by discipline and adaptability
Taken together, the insights from airlines, data providers and market studies point to an industry entering a more disciplined phase. Air cargo in 2026 is unlikely to see dramatic swings. Instead, it will be shaped by careful capacity management, diversified demand and a stronger focus on reliability and service quality.

In our view, the strongest growth drivers in 2026 will be cross-border e-commerce, pharma and high-tech shipments.

Anand Kulkarni, Lufthansa

The industry’s ability to adapt to policy changes, trade shifts and evolving customer needs remains its greatest strength. Growth may be modest, but it is grounded in real demand. In an increasingly uncertain global economy, air freight continues to play a critical role in keeping trade moving.