Geopolitics redraws global air cargo routes, says IATA chief

Geopolitical change reshaped global air cargo flows more clearly than the passenger part of the airline business in 2025, said Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association, making freight a direct reflection of how global trade is being reorganised.

Speaking at the Changi Aviation Summit, Walsh said the impact of geopolitical change was “much more obvious on the air cargo side of the business”. He pointed out that while global air cargo volumes grew overall by around 3.4 per cent in 2025, the real story lay in how cargo moved differently across regions as trade patterns shifted.

In 2025, cargo demand did not disappear, but it moved along new routes. IATA data showed a 0.8 per cent decline in air freight volumes between Asia and North America, marking the first contraction on this major trade lane in several years. At the same time, other routes expanded strongly, highlighting how geopolitical developments influenced where goods were shipped from and where they were sent.

Walsh said these changes reflected a broader reorganisation of global trade. Companies adjusted supply chains, sourcing locations and logistics networks in response to political and economic conditions, and these adjustments were immediately visible in air cargo flows. As a result, some long-established cargo corridors weakened while others gained importance.

Cargo traffic between Europe and Asia recorded double-digit growth of more than 10 per cent during the year. The Asia-Pacific region remained a central hub for global air cargo, with volumes in the region rising by over 8 per cent, though performance varied across markets depending on how trade routes evolved.

IATA noted that air cargo reacts quickly to changes in trade policy, supply chain decisions and cross-border conditions, making it more sensitive to geopolitical developments than other parts of the aviation industry. Walsh said this was why the effects of geopolitical change were more clearly visible in cargo than elsewhere.

Looking ahead, IATA expects air cargo to continue growing in 2026, though at a slower pace, with global volumes forecast to rise by about 2.4 per cent. Walsh said cargo markets will remain closely linked to geopolitical developments, with trade patterns continuing to evolve and air freight responding accordingly.