Asia Pacific air cargo grows 8.7% in February amid rising tensions

Asia Pacific carriers recorded solid growth in international air cargo demand in February 2026, although rising geopolitical tensions and higher fuel costs are expected to weigh on the outlook.

Preliminary figures released by the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) showed that international air cargo demand, measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTK), increased by 8.7% year-on-year in February. This growth was supported by resilient trade activity, including demand for consumer, intermediate and investment goods, as well as continued strength in e-commerce.

Offered freight capacity rose by 8.3 % over the same period. As demand growth outpaced capacity expansion, the average international freight load factor edged up by 0.3% points to 58.2% for the month.

For the first two months of the year, international air cargo volumes grew by 7.6% compared to the same period last year, reflecting positive business confidence and rising orders for goods manufactured in Asia.

However, the operating environment has become more challenging towards the end of February. The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced the availability of airspace, particularly along key Asia-Europe corridors. This has constrained capacity on these routes and limited network flexibility for affected carriers.

At the same time, a sharp rise in jet fuel prices has added further pressure. Fuel prices increased from an average of US$90 per barrel in the first two months of the year to around US$150 per barrel in the first three weeks of March. Combined with longer flight routings, this has significantly raised operating costs for airlines, impacting already thin profit margins.

Looking ahead, the broadly positive outlook for the air cargo market is expected to remain uncertain due to the evolving geopolitical situation. Prolonged conflicts in the Middle East could increase inflationary pressures and affect business sentiment, with implications for global trade and air cargo demand.