Global air cargo market grows as demand rises in January 2025

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest data for January 2025, highlighting sustained growth in the global air cargo market. Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 3.2% year-on-year, marking the 18th consecutive month of expansion. Meanwhile, available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK) rose by 6.8%, indicating a notable increase in capacity.

Despite this sustained momentum, the pace of growth has moderated compared to the double-digit surges witnessed in 2024. Additionally, yields remain higher than January 2024 levels, though they declined by 9.9% from December. Cargo load factors also fell by an average of 1.5 percentage points, underscoring shifts in market conditions.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasized the industry’s resilience in the face of evolving challenges. While trade expansion, declining fuel costs, and increasing e-commerce volumes remain positive forces, the potential impact of U.S. tariff-driven trade policies under the Trump Administration introduces an element of uncertainty. However, the air cargo sector has consistently demonstrated adaptability in navigating dynamic economic environments.

Regional Market Performance
Performance across different regions varied significantly in January. The Asia-Pacific region continued its strong performance, with air cargo demand rising by 7.5% and capacity increasing by 10.9%. North American carriers also saw healthy growth, with a 5.3% increase in demand and a 7.5% rise in capacity. In Europe, air cargo demand edged up by 1.3%, while available capacity expanded by 3.5%.

Latin America emerged as the fastest-growing region, recording an 11.2% surge in air cargo demand, alongside a 10.6% increase in capacity. Conversely, Middle Eastern carriers faced the sharpest decline, with demand contracting by 8.4%, and capacity decreasing by 1.2%. Africa also experienced a setback, with demand dipping 3.4%, even as capacity grew by 5.4%.

Trade Lane Developments
Key trade routes exhibited mixed performances. The Asia-North America trade lane, a critical corridor for global supply chains, recorded a 6.1% increase in demand, extending its growth streak to 15 months. Meanwhile, the Europe-Asia route saw a 3.2% rise, marking 23 consecutive months of expansion. The North America-Europe corridor posted the strongest growth among major routes at 9.7%, reflecting robust transatlantic trade.

However, some trade lanes saw declines. The Middle East-Europe route contracted by 7.3%, while the Middle East-Asia lane declined by 3.0%. Cargo volumes on the Africa-Asia corridor suffered the most significant drop, plummeting by 26.1%, highlighting ongoing logistical challenges in this trade segment.

Economic Trends and Future Projections
Several macroeconomic factors continue to influence the air cargo market. Global industrial production rose by 2.6% in December, supporting steady demand for freight services. Additionally, global goods trade grew by 3.3%, marking the ninth consecutive month of expansion.

Looking ahead, the air cargo industry remains in a period of transition, with shifting trade policies, evolving economic conditions, and capacity fluctuations shaping future growth patterns. Industry stakeholders will need to remain vigilant as they navigate potential disruptions while capitalizing on opportunities presented by e-commerce expansion and global trade resilience.