North American e-commerce logistics is evolving rapidly, driven by tech innovation, shifting consumer demands, and trade tensions, reshaping how goods move from warehouses to front doors.
The North American e-commerce logistics landscape is undergoing a major transformation, driven by shifting consumer expectations, regulatory changes, and rapid technological advancements. These forces are reshaping how goods move from warehouses to doorsteps across the continent. According to the Grand View Research data, the North American e-commerce market is projected to reach US$20.95 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15.7% from 2024 to 2030. With such significant growth on the horizon, understanding these trends is crucial for businesses aiming to maintain a competitive edge in an increasingly dynamic marketplace.
Market recalibration and network optimisation
The most significant trend currently shaping North American e-commerce logistics is the widespread network recalibration taking place across the industry. Kraig Foreman, President e-commerce, DHL Supply Chain North America, explains, “We are beginning to see a lot more activity with current and prospective customers looking to recalibrate their networks. There was a lot of hesitancy to make changes in the past 18-24 months, given the challenges with consumer spending behaviour and inflation. It made business cases for change harder to justify. However, this is beginning to change as brands look to right-size their networks to match both cost and meet their consumers expectations. This is driven by the necessity to make changes as they can no longer delay decisions as their businesses adjust to the market.”
Brandon Fried, Executive Director, Airforwarders Association (AfA), a global organistaion that represents hundreds of U.S. companies dedicated to moving cargo through the supply chain on all modes of transport, says, “The North American air cargo market remains steady but is undergoing significant recalibration. We're seeing a normalisation from the pandemic surge, combined with shifting consumer behaviour, less focus on goods, and more on services. The recent policy changes around de minimis, particularly impacting low-value shipments from China, have led to a noticeable dip in e-commerce volumes through air freight channels. That said, other sectors like life sciences, aerospace, and domestic e-commerce remain strong. While the market isn’t booming, it’s resilient, and many of our members are adjusting to new sourcing patterns and demand cycles with cautious optimism.”
“There was a lot of hesitancy to make changes in the past 18-24 months, given the challenges with consumer spending behaviour and inflation. It made business cases for change harder to justify.”
Kraig Foreman, DHL Supply Chain North America
This shift has created business opportunities for DHL Supply Chain and other providers. The company reports it is helping brands by “leveraging automation and robotics to drive better cost basis and service quality,” and has developed “network-based e-commerce solutions to help customers enter key geographies globally under the same operational standards expected from DHL.”
Cross-border e-commerce transformation
The cross-border e-commerce logistics segment is undergoing dramatic changes, particularly in response to evolving trade policies between the United States and China. One of the most significant disruptions stems from the suspension of the de minimis exemption for shipments originating from China and Hong Kong, a shift that took effect in May 2025. While the exemption, which allows duty-free entry for shipments under $800, still applies to most countries, its suspension for Chinese-origin goods has sent ripple effects across the industry. Although the U.S. and China have recently agreed to ease trade tensions, the absence of long-term clarity and unresolved structural issues suggests that deeper challenges remain.
According to a recent report by the Financial Times, Chinese retailers Temu and Shein are reportedly losing users in the wake of new U.S. tariffs. Data from market research firm Sensor Tower shows that Temu’s monthly active users (MAU) in the U.S. fell by 51%, down to 40.2 million, between March and June 2025. Shein also saw a 12% drop in its U.S. user base, with 41.4 million monthly active users during the same period.
“E-commerce has had a profound effect on the air forwarding sector, especially with the demand for faster, near-instant delivery. Forwarders have had to become more agile, investing heavily in technology, data integration, and last-mile partnerships to meet these expectations. However, with the removal of the de minimis exemption on goods from China, we’ve seen a cooling of cross-border e-commerce air volumes. This is pushing companies to reconsider sourcing strategies and diversify fulfilment networks, including nearshoring. It’s a period of adjustment, but the long-term trend toward speed and reliability remains a driving force behind innovation in our industry,” says Fried of AfA.
The regulatory uncertainty extends beyond tariff policies to encompass broader trade relationships. Companies operating in the cross-border e-commerce space are grappling with shifting compliance requirements and the need for more sophisticated customs solutions.
A report by DCL Logistics notes that customs processing times have increased, as new tariffs demand more documentation and regulatory compliance. Shipments from China now face stricter inspections and longer clearance delays.
Nearshoring and supply chain diversification
In response to trade policy changes and supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during recent global disruptions, many companies are pursuing nearshoring strategies. This trend involves relocating manufacturing and sourcing activities closer to end markets, often within North America itself. The strategy offers multiple advantages, including reduced transportation costs, shorter lead times, and decreased exposure to geopolitical risks.
Mexico has emerged as a particularly attractive nearshoring destination, offering competitive manufacturing costs while maintaining proximity to major U.S. markets. A report from the International Bar Association notes that major companies like Foxconn and Lego have shifted operations from Asia and Europe to Mexico in recent years. They are capitalising on Mexico’s free trade agreements, geographic proximity to U.S. consumers, and the ability to access the American market without incurring tariffs on Chinese goods. As a result, Mexico has become a strategic hub in the reorganisation of global value chains.
The report further highlights that, despite U.S. tariffs, nearshoring remains a central pillar of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s ‘Plan Mexico’, which aims to position the country among the world’s top ten economies. According to Mexico’s Ministry of Economy, the United States accounted for 38.7% of total foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country during the first quarter of 2025, reaffirming its position as Mexico’s top investment partner. Spain and the Netherlands followed in second and third place, respectively, both long-standing trade allies. The figures underscore Mexico’s central role in the nearshoring push.
The nearshoring trend is also driving investments in manufacturing and logistics infrastructure across North America. Companies are establishing new facilities and partnerships that can support more localised supply chains.
“As part of a global, multi-divisional organisation, we are able to support customers who need to adapt their sourcing and fulfilment strategies. By working with counterparts in other divisions, customers can take advantage of our wide-ranging expertise, database, systems, and products to identify the best solutions for their business,” says Foreman of DHL.
Infrastructure challenges and opportunities
Despite technological advances, infrastructure constraints continue to challenge the North American e-commerce logistics sector. Airport capacity limitations, particularly in ground handling and terminal infrastructure, remain significant bottlenecks.
“Capacity is less of a challenge in the air itself today than it was a few years ago, especially with the slowdown in transpacific e-commerce traffic from China. However, at the airport level, constraints persist, especially in ground handling and terminal infrastructure. Many U.S. airports are still catching up with the operational demands of high-velocity, small-parcel shipments. Staffing shortages and outdated facilities remain hurdles for forwarders trying to move time-sensitive goods efficiently. While the current environment has provided a bit of breathing room, long-term infrastructure modernisation is still urgently needed to support future growth,” says Fried of AfA.
Consumer expectations and service innovation
Consumer expectations for delivery speed and service quality continue to evolve, driving innovation in logistics operations. Same-day and next-day delivery options have become standard expectations in many markets, requiring logistics providers to develop more sophisticated fulfilment networks and transportation capabilities.
According to data from U.S. technology company Pitney Bowes, carriers are offering increasingly competitive pricing to capture market share, leading to declining revenue per parcel. The report notes that since it began tracking parcel volumes in 2015, the U.S. market has been dominated by the ‘Big Three’: FedEx, UPS, and USPS. However, Amazon Logistics is rapidly gaining ground, handling 6.3 billion parcels in 2024, just behind USPS at 6.9 billion. By 2028, Amazon is projected to surpass USPS, delivering 8.4 billion parcels compared to USPS’s 8.3 billion.
“Capacity is less of a challenge in the air itself today than it was a few years ago, especially with the slowdown in trans-Pacific e-commerce traffic from China.”
Brandon Fried, Airforwarders Association
This competitive landscape reflects the growing pressure on logistics providers to deliver faster, more affordably, and at scale. When asked about North America's role in DHL's global e-commerce strategy, Foreman of DHL says, “DHL Supply Chain North America is a key regional growth driver for DHL’s global e-commerce business. There are significant opportunities in North America. Given our geography, finding efficient ways to maximise cost savings while also meeting the high expectations for service by end-consumers is a constant challenge for our customers, but one that we love to help them solve as they compete in the market.”
Future outlook and strategic considerations
Looking ahead, the North American e-commerce logistics market is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite current challenges. While discussing trends in air forwarding, Fried of AfA explains, “Several trends are poised to reshape air forwarding. First, digitisation will continue to revolutionise shipment visibility, real-time tracking, and supply chain coordination. AI and machine learning will help optimise routing and forecasting. Second, sustainability mandates will drive the adoption of cleaner fuels, electric vehicles, and emissions reporting tools. Third, changes in global trade policy—like the reevaluation of de minimis thresholds—will push forwarders to diversify sourcing and adapt to new compliance regimes. Finally, automation and robotics in cargo handling, as well as drone technology in last-mile logistics, could unlock new levels of speed and efficiency. Those who invest in adaptability and innovation today will be best positioned for tomorrow’s opportunities.”
In the North American landscape, companies are also expanding and enhancing their footprint through key acquisitions. In January 2025, DHL Supply Chain announced the acquisition of Inmar Supply Chain Solutions, a division of Inmar Intelligence and a leading provider of returns solutions for the retail e-commerce industry. Later in May, to further enhance its e-commerce capabilities, DHL acquired U.S.-based IDS Fulfillment, a provider of e-commerce fulfilment and retail distribution logistics.
Commenting on these acquisitions, Foreman of DHL says, “Our recent e-commerce acquisitions enhance our capabilities to offer reverse logistics solutions as well as address the needs of small and mid-sized customers. Additionally, as more multi-national organisations seek to establish fulfilment capabilities in North America, we are able to offer scalable solutions that address their requirements.”
In February 2025, FedEx acquired RouteSmart Technologies, a global leader in route optimisation solutions with over 40 years of experience. The company provides mission-critical technology to sectors such as newspaper delivery, postal and parcel logistics, public works, utilities, field services, and waste collection worldwide.
“Given our global coverage, we are well-positioned to effectively support our customers as they adapt their manufacturing and sourcing strategies to strengthen their supply chain. We have a comprehensive range of logistics services that we tailor to the different strategies our customers employ. We use our databases, reports and systems to help customers keep abreast of potential changes and model various inventory scenarios. Additionally, our customs services, including Foreign Trade Zones, enable customers to reposition inventory and manage the timing of duty payments,” adds Foreman of DHL.
The North American e-commerce logistics market is expected to experience a surge in demand as e-commerce continues to grow and as retailers and logistics providers seek innovative solutions to meet customer expectations for faster delivery times and more accurate order fulfilment. While factors like economic uncertainty and potential trade policy changes could cause some short-term disruptions, the underlying trend of e-commerce adoption is expected to drive long-term expansion.