U.S. air cargo market adjusts as sourcing shifts reshape trade flows

The U.S. air cargo market is entering a period of stabilisation after the volatility of the pandemic years, as demand cools from the surge driven by e-commerce growth and supply chain disruptions. Data from the International Air Transport Association shows North American carriers – dominated by U.S. operators – recording a 1.3 per cent year-on-year decline in cargo tonne kilometres (CTK) in 2025, the only region to post a drop in demand. Capacity also fell 1.1 per cent, with the decline continuing into early 2026.

Trade flows shift as e-commerce cools
Stabilising volumes reveal shifts in U.S. air cargo trade flows, particularly on the transpacific corridor linking Asia’s manufacturing hubs with U.S. import demand.

Beyond the cooling of e-commerce, broader geopolitical and industrial forces are reshaping global sourcing patterns. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, stated, “By import value, the US bought more from Taiwan than from China in 2025 for the first time in decades. A combination of US tariffs reshaping trade flows and a global AI-driven surge in demand for tech products helped drive the shift. ”

For freight forwarders managing these trade lanes, the effects are already visible in cargo flows.

Stefan Krikken, Head of Global Air Product at DSV, noted, “We are seeing U.S.-bound air cargo evolve in new ways as cross-border e-commerce stabilises and supply chains mature. After the removal of the de minimis exemption, volumes initially dropped, but much of this has since been replaced by general cargo. Demand is increasingly dynamic, with more freight originating in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent and strong commodity-driven movements on the transatlantic westbound lane adding further volatility.”

A similar shift in sourcing patterns is also being seen across forwarding networks.

“DHL Global Forwarding has grown airfreight volumes to the USA in 2025 overall versus 2024. We do observe a shift in origin. Declining volumes from China have been offset by increased volume from Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand, especially in tech. E-commerce volumes, on the other hand, are down. On the transatlantic, we have seen a stable development,” said Henk Venema, Global Head of Air Freight at DHL Global Forwarding.

Regulatory developments are also influencing shipment structures as oversight of cross-border e-commerce tightens.

Brandon Fried, Executive Director of the Airforwarders Association, said, “As de minimis rules tighten, shippers are bundling volume to control compliance risk and landed cost. That plays directly into the forwarder's sweet spot. More planned moves, more documentation, and less ‘ship and hope'.”

Demand is becoming more dynamic, with more freight originating in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
Stefan Krikken, DSV

Capacity recalibration across routes
While trade flows evolve, capacity is also being recalibrated across global air cargo networks. Passenger aviation’s recovery restored belly cargo capacity close to pre-pandemic levels by late 2025, though relief remains uneven on U.S. trade lanes.

Krikken said, “Although global belly capacity has returned, it has offered only limited relief on U.S. routes, where demand remains subdued. At the same time, new freighter lift is being deployed selectively, often redirected to markets supporting the surge in AI-related equipment, data centre components, servers, and related hardware, where main deck space is essential.”

“Transatlantic demand is driven not only by European demand going westbound but also serves as a proven pressure relief valve for cargo originating from India and Southeast Asia. These two origins currently act as catalysts for the modest uptick in pressure. Most lift is provided by passenger belly capacity, while freighter capacity, especially to the US, has been rationalised," added Venema.

Airline fleet changes are reshaping capacity dynamics in the U.S. cargo market. Integrators are retiring older widebody freighters such as the MD-11, once central to long-haul operations. UPS Airlines retired its MD-11 fleet in 2024, while FedEx Express continues phasing out the aircraft as it introduces Boeing 777F and 767F freighters.

Rates soften as forwarders favour spot buying
As demand cools and capacity stabilises, pricing dynamics are beginning to adjust. Freight rates are gradually softening as the market moves away from the severe supply shortages that defined the pandemic years.

Forwarders are also adapting procurement strategies to a more uncertain policy environment.

According to Van de Wouw, forwarders remain cautious about locking in contracts with airlines. “Nearly 50% of their air freight volumes are still procured on the spot market. At the same time, many forwarders are prioritising market share gains to fuel growth, which is adding further downward pressure on shipper contract rates.”

Fried said uncertainty is shortening contract cycles, pushing forwarders toward flexible pricing, spot buying and index-linked agreements instead of long-term fixed rates.

Transatlantic routes increasingly serve as a pressure relief valve for cargo originating in India and Southeast Asia.
Henk Venema, DHL Global Forwarding

The H2 2026 outlook
Looking ahead, the second half of 2026 is expected to bring measured growth for the U.S. air cargo sector.

Geopolitical developments, shifting tariffs and evolving supply chains could create short-term demand swings, while growing activity in high-tech manufacturing and data centre infrastructure may draw additional airfreight capacity toward key technology trade lanes.

Regulatory changes are also likely to shape operations, with expanded data requirements adding operational pressure for freight forwarders if implementation timelines do not align with real-world shipping practices.