Is China–Europe the most resilient air cargo corridor?

"We're in step with where the market is growing, populations are growing. More and more people are buying things online. If I'm in China, I want something that is made in Alaska. If I'm in Australia, I want a pair of jeans that I can buy in Italy. That's what people want. They want to be able to buy it as an individual person," said Dennis Lister, Senior Vice President of Product and Innovation at Emirates SkyCargo during an interview at transport logistic and air cargo India 2026 in Mumbai in February. As a result of this surge in cross-border e-commerce shipments, "the compound interest growth on that will mean we'll need more capacity. And, that's what we're hedging on."

Lister’s observation captures the underlying demand engine of global air cargo in 2026. But while demand continues to grow, the China–Europe corridor is no longer defined by expansion alone. Instead, it is being reshaped by a complex interplay of legacy capacity additions from 2025, geopolitical disruptions, regulatory shifts, fuel volatility and structural imbalances in global aviation.

A market built on e-commerce and redirected by trade policy
The continued rise of cross-border e-commerce remains the single most important driver of China–Europe air freight demand. However, the direction and intensity of that demand have been increasingly shaped by geopolitical developments and trade policy.

During a conversation at the same industry event, Ingo Zimmer, CEO of ATC Aviation Services, pointed to a clear redirection of flows influenced by new tariff announcements by the Trump administration in the US.

"We have some Chinese carriers in our portfolio, and we have a lot of portfolio from Europe. We've seen the trend that capacity came into Europe because of expanded e-commerce, and increased e-commerce into Europe instead of the United States.”

His company’s partnership with Sichuan Airlines, which operates up to 17 A330 freighter rotations per week into Europe, highlights the continuing importance of dedicated freighter capacity in supporting these flows and the rising growth of Chinese airlines on this route.

“Under the current circumstances, the China‒Europe corridor stands out as the most stable major trade lane.”
Mazen Zaher, Sama Airleasing

Another factor contributing to this growth could be the disparity in airspace access. European carriers remain unable to use Russian airspace, forcing them to take longer, more fuel-intensive routes between Europe and Asia. In contrast, Chinese carriers — including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Beijing Capital Airlines and Sichuan Airlines — continue to operate over Russian territory. This provides shorter routing, lower fuel burn and higher payload efficiency, effectively giving Chinese airlines a cost and capacity advantage on the China–Europe corridor.

Since the closure of Russian airspace, Finnair has been operating 9 to 11 flights per week to Greater China, depending on the season, which defines the effective cargo supply. Volumes over the past year have been stable at high load factors, constrained primarily by capacity rather than demand. But most importantly, Finnair Cargo currently sees demand significantly exceeding available capacity on the China–Europe corridor.

Adding a different perspective, Jayram Nair, Regional Commercial Manager for AsiaPac at IAG Cargo, said, “In Q4 2025, volumes on this corridor increased by approximately 10%, driven by seasonal demand, particularly for e-commerce and hi-tech goods ahead of the Christmas period. In line with forecasts, volumes softened in January before picking up again in early February ahead of the Chinese New Year.”

“IAG Cargo operates regular services from Hong Kong and Shanghai into the UK, with onward connectivity across our network into North America and Latin America. Overall, demand remains resilient, with customers continuing to prioritise reliable and direct services,” added Nair.

At the infrastructure level, Frankfurt provides insight into shifting cargo patterns. According to Stephan Horn, Senior Manager Strategy & Business Development, Fraport AG, Frankfurt handled 495,594 tonnes of cargo on China routes in 2025, a 21% increase year-on-year. Horn added that by far the largest airport in mainland China is Shanghai, with a volume of 254,745 tonnes (+18.5%). It is followed by Beijing, Chengdu, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Ezhou, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing.

“In Q4 2025, volumes on this corridor increased by approximately 10%, driven by seasonal demand, particularly for e-commerce and hi-tech goods ahead of the Christmas period.”
Jayram Nair, IAG Cargo

Imports are dominated by e-commerce goods and consumer products, while exports consist largely of automotive parts, electronics and machinery. At the same time, cargo volumes to the Middle East declined sharply, while Far East and African routes recorded growth.

2025 capacity surge continues to shape 2026 market dynamics
A major structural factor influencing current market conditions is the surge in passenger capacity that took place in 2025. According to a social media post around passenger capacity surge in 2025 by Hunter Chen, Deputy GM at WANB Express, “In the 2025 summer flight season, Chinese airlines added a net total of 2,891 China-Europe passenger flights (Air China 1,120, China Southern Airlines 839, China Eastern Airlines 654), which will significantly increase belly-hold cargo capacity on China-Europe routes.”

This expansion translated into a substantial increase in belly-hold cargo supply, with each wide-body aircraft capable of carrying approximately 10 to 15 tonnes. At the time, this equated to an estimated 30,000 to 43,000 tonnes of additional weekly capacity.

The effects of this expansion are still being felt in 2026. The influx of belly capacity created downward pressure on general cargo rates, particularly for e-commerce and light-bulky shipments. However, this structural increase is now being partially offset by operational disruptions and capacity constraints emerging from geopolitical tensions and fuel supply issues.

Strong demand, but diverging market realities
While the structural demand picture remains positive, market participants report varying experiences on the ground. For instance, Ingrid Raj, SVP Aviation Commercial at DHL Aviation, said: “Hong Kong/ China to Europe volumes are currently strong and stable. Compared to last year we have reduced capacity into the US and increased capacity into Europe, to cope with the clear demand shifts. Since the Middle East conflict began, volumes into Europe have continued to grow, due to strong market demand.” She also mentioned, “HK/CN-EU lane is currently one of the largest air cargo trade lanes for us, also in part driven by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.”

However, Raj also mentioned that the CN-EU demand growth has been developing over the last few years, not just recently. The major growth is from e-commerce demand. The Middle East conflict has placed additional capacity pressure on other lanes, such as the CN-EU trade lane, where DHL has been adding freighter capacity.

“Hong Kong/ China to Europe lane is currently one of the largest air cargo trade lanes for us, also in part driven by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.”
Ingrid Raj, DHL Aviation

Adding to that, Mazen Zaher, Founder of Sama Airleasing, mentioned that the China-Europe air cargo corridor has demonstrated remarkable resilience and stability over the past year, especially when contrasted with other major global trade lanes that have faced severe disruptions from the changing US tariffs and the tensions in West Asia. Zaher added that because of the new tariffs, “we are witnessing a structural shift where cargo volumes are being redistributed away from North America and redirected toward Europe, South America, and Africa. Furthermore, the ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have severely limited the flexibility shippers previously had to shift volumes between ocean and air freight.”

“Frankfurt handled 495,594 metric tonnes of cargo on China routes in 2025, a 21% increase year-on-year.”
Stephan Horn, Fraport AG

Explaining the impact of the Middle East situation, Zaher added that while the global air cargo market has had to navigate the withdrawal of approximately 12% of total capacity due to airspace closures and the virtual standstill of Middle East commercial airspace, the China‒Europe lane has managed to absorb these shocks effectively. “From an operational standpoint at Sama Airleasing, we have seen that while rates on lanes like South Asia to Europe spiked by 60% and Southeast Asia to Europe climbed 30% following the escalation of conflicts, the China‒Europe rates have remained relatively stable and have even shown signs of normalisation recently,” he added.

Mazen Zaher explained that airlines are increasingly avoiding Middle Eastern airspace, opting for longer routes via Central Asia. While this increases transit times and fuel consumption, it provides greater operational certainty. He also highlighted a shift in cargo flows, with more shipments being routed through Chinese hubs due to fuel shortages in Southeast Asia. This consolidation is reshaping traditional flow patterns and reinforcing the role of China as a primary origin point.

Based on this Middle Eastern logistics company’s opinion, this stability is largely driven by China's robust freighter capacity, more secure fuel supplies compared to other Asian markets, and the established direct long-haul routes that bypass traditional Middle Eastern transit hubs. For operators and shippers, this corridor has become a reliable backbone for east-west trade, allowing us to maintain uninterrupted supply chain flows for our clients despite the macro-level volatility.

As air freight costs rise, rail is emerging as an alternative for certain cargo segments. However, rail is also experiencing its own pricing pressures, according to the Dimerco report. China–Europe rail freight rates have increased significantly, with rate hikes of $600–$800+ per container becoming the new baseline. This reflects increased demand as shippers seek alternatives to both expensive air freight and disrupted ocean routes. The cargo mix on rail services is also evolving, with growth in automotive parts, heavy equipment and e-commerce goods seeking a balance between speed and cost.

Similarly, Dimerco Express Group states that Middle East tensions have tightened global jet fuel supply, prompting airlines to reduce passenger flights and limiting belly-hold availability on Asia–Europe routes. Kathy Liu, VP, Global Sales & Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, explained that freighter capacity has largely recovered to around 90% of pre-disruption levels. However, she emphasised that operational realities tell a different story.

Passenger flight cancellations, estimated at around 5% globally, continue to reduce available belly capacity. At the same time, fuel shortages in parts of Southeast Asia are forcing carriers to cancel flights and redirect cargo flows toward China gateways. In East China, payload restrictions are further reducing effective long-haul capacity. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian carriers are facing frequent cancellations on routes to Bangkok, Manila and Jakarta due to fuel shortages, pushing additional cargo into already constrained spot markets.

Adding to that Liu mentioned that they are seeing clear shifts in both demand concentration and routing strategies. Fuel-related disruptions have already led some passenger carriers to reduce frequencies, tightening belly capacity on key lanes. At the same time, demand for freighter capacity has intensified, particularly from the consumer electronics sector, where we are seeing more than 10 charter flights per week out of China to Europe in the near term. Cargo is also being repositioned, with more shipments originating directly from China gateways instead of moving through Southeast Asia transshipment hubs, reshaping traditional flow patterns,” added Liu.

However, Reto R. Hunziker, President Europe at Chapman Freeborn, observed a contrasting situation. He mentioned, “At the moment, we do not see a significant change in demand from China into Europe, which is somewhat surprising given that there is less capacity in the market. A lot of belly capacity, particularly from Middle Eastern carriers, has been reduced, and there is also less freighter lift available than before. 

“At the moment, we do not see a significant change in demand from China into Europe, which is somewhat surprising given that there is less capacity in the market.”
Reto R. Hunziker, Chapman Freeborn

Despite this, demand has not increased. This could be due to a few factors: exporters in China are more cautious and not willing to buy at any price; supply chains are better managed; and from a European perspective, consumer behaviour has changed. People are simply spending less on non-essential goods, which directly reduces cargo volumes.”

Despite all the differences in opinion, one thing is clear: The China–Europe corridor remains one of the most strategically important and resilient air cargo trade lanes globally. Its strength is supported by China’s role as a manufacturing and e‑commerce hub, sustained European demand for high‑value goods, and the continued need for reliable air connectivity amid geopolitical and trade disruptions, stated Jukka Hämäläinen, Sales Director, Asia at Finnair Cargo.

Similarly, Zaher added, “Under the current circumstances, the China‒Europe corridor stands out as the most stable major trade lane.”

Fuel volatility becomes the dominant cost driver
Fuel costs have become the single most influential factor shaping air cargo economics in 2026. James Gilliard, Vice President Cargo Sales Europe at Chapman Freeborn, noted: “Fuel price is a major factor. As fuel costs increase, carriers pass those costs on, which particularly impacts lower-value e-commerce shipments. At a certain point, it becomes uneconomical, as shippers cannot pass these increases on to consumers.”

He added, “Fuel prices are having a major impact on cargo operations. Carriers ultimately pass these costs on, so whether shipments move depends on how much of these increases can be absorbed across the supply chain, including the end consumer.”

Agreeing to this, Hämäläinen mentioned that fuel prices have increased dramatically, significantly impacting long‑haul route economics such as Asia–Europe. Rates have been adjusted accordingly, reflecting higher operating costs, while maintaining focus on sustainable operations and service reliability.

DHL Aviation reinforced this view, highlighting that fuel price volatility is significantly impacting long-haul route economics, with airlines facing immediate cost exposure and delayed recovery through surcharges.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to influence routing strategies and cargo flows.

Zaher of Sama Airleasing, explained that airlines are increasingly avoiding Middle Eastern airspace and opting for alternative corridors via Central Asia.

He noted that more than 15% of shipments previously routed through Southeast Asia are now being consolidated through Chinese hubs, reflecting both fuel constraints and strategic adjustments.

These changes are increasing transit times and costs but improving reliability—an increasingly important factor for shippers navigating uncertain supply chains.

EU de minimis reform: A structural turning point
The decision by the European Union to abolish the €150 de minimis exemption from July 2026 represents a major structural shift.

The reform will require full customs declarations for all shipments, increasing compliance costs and potentially extending clearance times. While this may initially slow low-value e-commerce flows, industry participants expect adaptation rather than contraction. DHL Aviation stated that demand will likely shift toward bulk shipping, regional warehousing and consolidated freight models, rather than disappearing altogether.

“The China–Europe corridor remains one of the most strategically important and resilient air cargo trade lanes globally.”
Jukka Hämäläinen, Finnair Cargo

Similarly, the Finnair Cargo spokesperson mentioned that EU de minimis changes may moderate growth in very low‑value e‑commerce shipments, but are unlikely to materially reduce overall China–Europe air cargo demand. E‑commerce is expected to adjust through consolidation and revised fulfilment models, rather than shifting away from air freight.

While Frankfurt Airport also shares the same opinion, the UK-based charter broker company shares a different opinion. Gilliard stated that while regulatory changes such as EU de minimis adjustments may have an impact, cost remains the dominant factor shaping demand on the China–Europe corridor.

On the other hand, Sama Airleasing founder has a different opinion. Zaher stated that currently, cross-border ecommerce from China takes up a massive amount of freighter capacity. In 2024 alone, 4.6 billion small parcels were imported into the EU. The introduction of a €3 flat-rate tax per item, followed by an additional processing fee, will challenge the low-cost e-commerce shipping model. “We have already seen a preview of this impact when France introduced its parcel tax early in March 2026, resulting in a 92% drop in customs declarations for small parcels at Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG) and the loss of around 50 freighter flights in the first week alone,” he added.

“Freighter capacity on the China–Europe corridor has largely recovered and is now approaching around 90% of pre-disruption levels.”
Kathy Liu, Dimerco Express Group

However, rather than destroying demand entirely, these volumes shifted to alternative hubs like Liège, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt. If the EU-wide implementation leads to a broader decline in e-commerce volumes, it will free up significant freighter capacity. Given the current elevated jet fuel prices, some older, less fuel-efficient freighters may be forced out of the market. However, for agile operators, this freed capacity can be quickly reallocated to high-growth verticals such as the shipment of hyperscale AI infrastructure and high-tech components, ensuring the lane remains highly active.

In this environment, success will depend not just on capacity, but on adaptability. Airlines, forwarders and shippers that can navigate uncertainty, optimise networks and respond to shifting demand patterns will be best positioned to succeed in a market where resilience is no longer optional — it is essential.