Freighter cancellations from China to hit capacity: Dimerco

Major carriers including Air China, China Cargo Airlines and China Southern Airlines are planning to cancel freighter services between China and the U.S. in the near future, though these cancellations are still pending final confirmation.

"If these cancellations go through, the already limited capacity from China to the U.S. will be further reduced," says the latest update from Dimerco.

"Most e-commerce platforms have suspended shipments under T86 from China to the U.S. by the end of April. However, FBA (Fulfilled by Amazon) shipments continue to move as normal. Overall, e-commerce shipment volume has dropped by approximately 50 percent since mid-April compared to the same period last year."

Kathy Liu, VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group says: "Since around April 20, charter flights from China to the U.S. have been significantly reduced - many were either cancelled or re-routed. A lot of that capacity has shifted to destinations like Nuevo Laredo in Mexico and other parts of Latin America, where demand has actually gone up, especially out of Mexico.

"For shipments to the U.S., a lot of shippers have hit pause. With the uncertainty around new tariffs between the U.S. and China, many are holding back on placing new orders. But what’s interesting is that demand out of Southeast Asia and Taiwan has stayed relatively stable. That’s likely due to the 90-day tariff exemption granted by the U.S. government, which is giving some breathing room to shippers in those regions."

Regional markets
Taiwan: Cargo volumes between Asian countries and European hub ports have increased. While April is typically not a peak season for this route, Taiwanese and Chinese carriers have added extra flights to accommodate the demand, the update added.

"The impact of tariffs has significantly reduced cargo space demand from various regions in China to major U.S. cities. Since many shipments from China transit through Taiwan before reaching the U.S., this may gradually affect volumes from Taiwan to the US as well. As a result, the three major cargo airlines have significantly reduced their flights, and several e-commerce companies have announced plans to halt shipments to the U.S. starting in May."

North China: Korean Air has cancelled one flight per week from Tianjin Binhai International Airport (TSN) due to decreased cargo volume and aircraft maintenance. Asiana Airlines reduced flights from five per week to three per week from TSN airport.

East China: "Most of the shipments to the U.S. are suspended. Some capacity of the U.S.-bound chartered flights has been shifted to Mexico."

South China: From Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN), starting in April, All Nippon Airways cancelled Monday freighter flights, reducing the CAN-Narita International Airport (NRT) route from daily service to six flights a week. "Korean Air cancelled two weekly extra flights from CAN, but still maintained daily service."

Hong Kong: The overall space remains stable, with air freight falling down for U.S.-bound shipments but the demand to Asia has increased, the update added.

South Korea: Flight capacity from Incheon International Airport (ICN) has been reduced by 1–2 flights per week due to maintenance issues with Korean Air and Asiana Airlines, tightening space to Asia, especially Singapore Changi Airport. "Fuel surcharges will slightly decrease from April 16 to May 15 based on market conditions. Bookings to the U.S. should be made at least two weeks in advance due to high demand and limited space."

Vietnam: Shippers have been postponing or cancelling shipments without a clear timeline for when they will resume. Rates have been fluctuating, making it difficult to identify a clear trend, the update added.

India: The overall Indian freight market is stable despite the U.S. tariffs. "Some shippers are holding off on U.S.-bound shipments, awaiting clarity after the 90-day tariff pause. Some Indian exporters of similar goods to those made in China anticipate higher demand as buyers shift sourcing away from China."

North America/Los Angeles: Expect delays due to high import volumes, full warehouses and backlogs, the update added.

"High tariffs may force carriers to reroute/cancel flights (e.g., HKG-CGO or HKG-CKG) if payloads are low. Reduced U.S. imports could lower export flight availability as imports drive carrier profits. More passenger flights will increase demand but reduce available capacity."

Polar has exited the Los Angeles air freight market, returning aircraft to its parent company, the update added. "DHL’s impact and pricing strategy are unclear. Pre-book early to secure space."

Mexico: Strong growth across Latin America, particularly in Mexico, has driven an increase in cargo. The recent reversal of tariffs has triggered a surge in freight orders as companies rush to ship goods ahead of potential new trade policies. Many are also shifting manufacturing to Mexico to leverage favorable terms under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). With this spike in demand, it’s recommended to book flights two–four days in advance to secure space, Dimerco said in its report.

What to watch for
While de minimis exemption for China and Hong Kong ends w.e.f. May 2, 2025, many believe the imposition of tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors under Section 232 is imminent.

Bipartisan bills have been introduced to restrict the U.S. President’s power to impose tariffs, and the Manifest Modernisation Act proposes public access to air, truck and rail manifest data.

The U.S. administration is also considering easing reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports, the report added.