Boeing forecasts air cargo traffic to double by 2045

Boeing has forecast that global air cargo traffic will double over the next two decades, with the worldwide freighter fleet expected to exceed 4,000 aircraft by 2045, according to its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast.

The projected growth will be driven by increasing demand for time-sensitive shipments, particularly for advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI) hardware, alongside expanding e-commerce volumes and the diversification of global supply chains.

As trade patterns evolve, cargo carriers are expected to adjust their route networks to accommodate shifting trade lanes and navigate geopolitical disruptions.

Boeing unveiled its biennial 20-year air cargo forecast at The International Air Cargo Association’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami. The report examines key air trade markets, industry trends and the projected development of the global freighter fleet.

Global air cargo traffic reached a record high in 2025, growing nearly 5% year over year despite trade volatility and geopolitical disruptions. The report highlights the resilience of air cargo networks, which continue to adapt to shifting trade flows, rerouting challenges and changes in production locations while maintaining speed, reliability and security.

E-commerce, direct-to-consumer business models and growing demand for high-tech goods are emerging as key drivers of air cargo growth. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025, underscoring the sector’s role in supporting global technology supply chains.

World Air Cargo Forecast
Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast projects that global air cargo traffic will grow by an average of 3.5% annually over the next 20 years, outpacing long-term economic and trade growth. Structural demand drivers and the sector’s resilience are expected to support this expansion, with trade flows involving Asia accounting for approximately 60% of the global market.

The global freighter fleet is forecast to expand by 67%, increasing from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 by 2045. Dedicated freighters are expected to carry more than half of global air cargo traffic over the long term.

To accommodate rising demand and replace ageing aircraft, operators will require 2,930 new and converted freighters over the next two decades. Around 55% of these deliveries are expected to support capacity expansion, while the remaining 45% will replace older, less efficient aircraft. Converted passenger aircraft are projected to account for approximately two-thirds of deliveries, with the remainder comprising new-production freighters.

The report also highlights the importance of combining passenger belly cargo capacity with dedicated freighter operations. Airlines operating both are responsible for nearly one-third of total air cargo revenues, reflecting the value of serving diverse markets through broad networks. Meanwhile, growing demand for express services is expected to increase integrators’ share of global air cargo traffic to nearly 25% by 2045.

Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing, said, “Air cargo's adaptability and speed are strategic advantages enabling reliable transport, dynamic rerouting, and critical support for evolving supply chains. As global trade patterns change and demand for time-sensitive, high-value goods grows, dedicated freighters will remain essential to global commerce."

The global air cargo market primarily transports perishable, high-value and time-sensitive goods. Although air freight accounts for less than 1% of global trade by volume, it represents approximately one-third of the total value of goods traded worldwide, highlighting its importance to international commerce.

Historically, around 55% of global air cargo traffic, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, has been carried by main-deck freighters, underscoring the role of dedicated cargo aircraft in supporting global supply chains.

In 2025, airlines operating freighters, including both cargo-only carriers and passenger airlines, generated approximately 90% of the air cargo industry’s estimated $170 billion in revenue.