Air cargo thrives amid volatility and AI surge

The air cargo industry has reached a point where geopolitical shocks no longer surprise its leaders, they trigger a familiar playbook of adaptation.

That was the prevailing sentiment at a panel discussion held on June 24 at transport logistic and air cargo Shanghai (China) 2026 in Shanghai, where four senior executives examined how global air cargo is navigating compounding disruption while riding an unprecedented wave of AI-driven demand.

Panellists agreed that global trade has stayed surprisingly resilient despite tariff wars, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, West Asia hostilities, and sanctions regimes with air cargo serving as the rapid-response channel for rerouted and time-sensitive shipments.

The session was moderated by Reji John, Editor of The STAT Trade Times, and brought together Asok Kumar, Group CEO of Expolanka Group and Global CEO of Morrison Express, Jannie Davel, CEO of MSC Air Cargo; Joanna Li, Executive Director of Commercial and Business Development at Hactl, and Stanislas Brun, Chief Cargo Officer of Etihad Airways.

 "The playbook was created during the Covid years, and now that playbook is just adapted to every different situation we face. The adaptability, the ability for the cargo industry to pivot the shippers, the carriers, the forwarders is very fast now. Extremely fast."
Asok Kumar, Expolanka Group, Morrison Express

"Nothing surprises me anymore"
Setting the tone for the discussion, Kumar captured the industry's collective mindset with characteristic directness. "I'm surprised that I'm no longer surprised," he said, reflecting on more than three decades in the business. "The playbook was created during the Covid years, and now that playbook is just adapted to every different situation we face. The adaptability, the ability for the cargo industry to pivot the shippers, the carriers, the forwarders is very fast now. Extremely fast."

Davel echoed the sentiment but pushed it further, arguing that there is no longer a single playbook at all. "The playbook is being written every day. There is no one playbook," he said, adding that MSC Air Cargo was built from the outset on a philosophy of avoiding institutional hub dependency. "We will not create an institutional hub system. We're going to look at the gateways, because the market changes so quickly that you cannot afford to be institutionalised into one or two locations."

West Asia crisis: a test passed
Among the most striking accounts came from Brun, who described Etihad's response to the outbreak of the West Asia crisis on February 28, 2026 the day after Air Cargo India concluded in Mumbai. "The anti-missile took off and the war started," he recalled. "What happened in the weeks after was about proof of resilience." Etihad resumed operations within 48 hours, with its first post-crisis flight a 777 freighter to Hong Kong departing on the Monday morning. Within days, the carrier had also launched emergency programmes using chartered 747 freighters to ensure food and pharmaceutical supplies reached Abu Dhabi and the UAE while sea routes remained closed. "After a week, we were already at 95% of our capacity," Brun said. Today, he added, Etihad is operating 300 flights a day with its freighters flying over 15 hours daily.

The AI cargo surge and its risks
The conversation’s most animated segment centred on artificial intelligence and its rapidly expanding footprint in air freight. Kumar, headquartered in Taipei and leading what he described as Taiwan's largest freight forwarder by combined air imports and exports, painted a vivid picture of the AI supply chain's current intensity. Companies across cooling systems, data connectivity infrastructure, server rack assembly, and semiconductor manufacturing are reporting full production capacity bookings for the next two to three years, he said.

But Kumar also sounded a note of caution that stood out for its candour. "It scares me as well," he said, pointing to Taiwan's projected economic growth of 9.8% this year. "This is not the growth of a mature economy. This is the growth of an emerging market. Taiwan is not an emerging market. Is all this leading to a bubble?" He added, however, that based on customer conversations across the AI supply chain, "if we're talking about a bubble, at least until the end of next year, we should probably be safe." He also flagged a counter-effect: chip shortages are expected to reduce smartphone, laptop, and consumer electronics volumes by 8–10%, not from lack of demand but from lack of chips to build the products.

Davel confirmed that MSC Air Cargo had moved early to position itself for the shift, having invested in IATA CEIV certification and specialist handling for out-of-gauge equipment. "We really focus on the early stage to make sure we are ready in a position to be able to handle these kinds of commodities and demands," he said. He also noted that premium freight is becoming more prominent again, alongside continued strength in mobile device demand and growing volumes from South Asia.

Hong Kong: defending its position
Li offered a ground-level perspective from Hong Kong, where Hactl marks its 50th anniversary this year and continues to handle what she estimated is more than 50% e-commerce cargo, though processed as general freight. She was candid about the competitive pressure from mainland Chinese airports citing Zhengzhou, Ezhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu but outlined how Hong Kong is responding. Hactl and Hong Kong International Airport are developing a permanent offsite facility in Dongguan, offering shippers a lower-cost barge-connected option for standard cargo, while the home base retains its focus on high-value, sensitive, and pharmaceutical shipments requiring full cold-chain and security infrastructure. "Shanghai is number two and we are number one," she said. "But this competition actually makes us grow stronger."

On the compliance and documentation front, Li acknowledged the growing complexity created by sanctions and geopolitical restrictions. "There are so many new rules and regulations, especially with the geopolitical situation. We are the gatekeeper," she said, noting that Hactl maintains a dedicated data and licensing team and is working to integrate AI tools to reduce compliance risk, while still relying heavily on experienced human judgment.

 "We really focus on the early stage to make sure we are ready in a position to be able to handle these kinds of commodities and demands,"
Jannie Davel, MSC Air Cargo

Abu Dhabi, interlines, and the cargo of tomorrow
Brun outlined Etihad's broader strategic positioning, revealing that the carrier is now flying 18 weekly freighter frequencies to mainland China, the maximum permitted under bilateral rights, alongside partnerships with SF Airlines in Ezhou and Shenzhen.

The new East Midfield Cargo Terminal at Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi spans approximately 90,000 square metres and is designed to handle between one million and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo annually, including pharmaceuticals, perishables, AI servers, and other high-value freight. The terminal is nearing completion.

He also highlighted Etihad's SmartTrack product, which provides shipment data including location, temperature, humidity, light, shock, and tilt readings every 30 minutes, a capability he described as increasingly critical for AI server logistics.

Expolanka–Morrison integration and no capacity oversupply ahead
Kumar addressed the ongoing integration of Expolanka Group and Morrison Express under a shared Japanese parent, Sagawa, noting the two are complementary rather than competing: Morrison is heavily focused on high-tech and semiconductors, while Expolanka is dominant in fashion and garments with a strong South Asian footprint. Integration is focused on back-end synergies joint procurement, shared financial systems, and combined freight volumes that create stronger leverage with carrier partners  while the two customer-facing brands continue independently.

Closing the session, speakers were asked to name the biggest unpriced risk in air cargo over the next 10 to 12 months. Kumar's answer was firm: he does not foresee a significant capacity overhang or volume collapse. "If you look at global trade, air cargo is what one, two percent of ocean? It's minuscule in the big scheme of things," he said. "The scope and resilience of air cargo continuing to be relevant and continuing to move global trade absolutely."