Air cargo disruptions weigh on India’s mango exports to US

Global demand for mangoes is expected to remain firm in 2026, led by the United States, which continues to be one of the largest importers of the fruit. Imports into the US are projected to grow by around 7% this year, supported by rising per capita consumption of about 3.6 to 4 kg, strong retail promotions and year-round availability, according to data from the Market Intelligence Cell under the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) of India.

At the same time, global supply conditions are uneven. Production in Peru is expected to decline by around 10% due to delayed flowering and weather disruptions, while Pakistan’s exports are projected to fall by about 8% due to quality-related rejections, according to APEDA’s January 2026 mango dashboard. Mexico, a key supplier to the US market, continues to dominate, but faces its own constraints linked to weather and market access.

India, which remains the world’s largest mango producer, is expected to see a marginal increase in production in 2026, driven by improved productivity in southern states such as Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, APEDA data shows. However, despite this production strength, India’s share in global fresh mango exports remains limited, largely due to logistics and shelf-life constraints.

Why logistics define mango exports
Unlike processed mango products, fresh mango exports depend heavily on speed and precision. The fruit has a short shelf life and is highly sensitive to temperature changes. Even small delays during transit can affect quality, leading to losses or rejection at destination markets.

For long-haul routes such as India to the US, air freight remains the only viable mode of transport. Sea freight is generally not used for fresh mangoes because the transit time is too long to maintain quality. This makes exporters heavily dependent on the availability, cost and reliability of air cargo services.

India’s air cargo network for long-haul shipments is closely linked to transit hubs in the Middle East. These hubs provide connectivity and frequency, enabling exporters to move cargo efficiently to North America. As a result, any disruption in this region has a direct and immediate impact on exports.

After-effects of the Middle East crisis continue
Although the recent Middle East conflict has now ended, its effects on global air cargo operations are still visible. During the disruption, airlines were forced to avoid certain airspaces, leading to longer routes. This increased fuel consumption and reduced aircraft efficiency, which in turn pushed up operating costs.

Even after the situation has stabilised, freight rates have not returned to previous levels, and capacity remains constrained. Airlines are still adjusting schedules, and the system continues to absorb the impact of earlier disruptions.

Industry data and exporter feedback indicate that operational uncertainty remains high, with tighter connections, last-minute changes and reduced flexibility continuing to affect shipments. For perishable cargo, this creates additional risk.

Kaybee Exports navigates a challenging season
In this environment, Kaybee Exports has initiated its mango export season with its first shipment to the US on 28th March, moving cargo from Mumbai to San Francisco. The company plans to continue shipments through the season, although volumes will depend on how freight rates and capacity evolve.

According to Kaushal Khakhar, the current air cargo market has created significant challenges for exporters. “The biggest challenge has been the sharp rise in freight costs along with operational uncertainty,” he said.

Freight rates on the India to US route have increased sharply from around ₹350 per kg last year to about ₹500 to ₹550 per kg this season, he added. This increase is primarily due to higher fuel costs resulting from longer flight paths.

“While sectors like pharma can absorb such increases, mango exports are extremely price-sensitive, making this the single biggest challenge this season,” Khakhar said.

Capacity constraints and cargo prioritisation
In addition to rising costs, exporters are also dealing with tighter cargo capacity. Longer routes have reduced the effective availability of aircraft space, while airlines are prioritising passenger baggage and higher-yield cargo.

With longer routes, airlines are prioritising passenger baggage and higher-yield cargo, which reduces available space for perishables and increases the chances of rollovers

Kaushal Khakhar, Kaybee Exports

This has made it more difficult for exporters to secure confirmed bookings, especially during peak demand periods. The risk of cargo being offloaded or delayed has increased, adding uncertainty to operations.

Routing challenges and reliance on transit hubs
Despite the disruption, exporters continue to rely on Middle Eastern transit hubs for shipments to the US. These hubs remain critical for connectivity, even though routings have become more flexible.

“We continue to depend largely on Gulf hubs, though routings have become more flexible,” Khakhar said. He added that while direct India–US flights are being evaluated more actively, limited capacity means they cannot fully replace hub-based routes.

This continued dependence highlights a structural issue in India’s export logistics, where long-haul connectivity relies heavily on external transit points.

Managing delays and protecting quality
The disruption has also affected transit times, making them longer and less predictable. For perishable goods like mangoes, this increases the risk of spoilage and quality deterioration.

To address this, exporters are strengthening their handling processes. “We are mitigating this through tighter packhouse controls, strict temperature management, and faster cargo handovers to preserve quality and shelf life,” Khakhar said.

These measures help reduce risk but also increase operational complexity and cost. Exporters must now invest more in quality control to ensure shipments arrive in acceptable condition.

No alternative to air freight
Despite the challenges, exporters have limited options when it comes to transport modes. For US-bound mangoes, air freight remains the only viable choice.

“For US-bound mangoes, air freight remains the only viable option,” Khakhar said, adding that sea freight is not commercially feasible due to the long transit time and perishability of the product.

This lack of flexibility means exporters must operate within the constraints of the air cargo market, regardless of cost or disruption.

Uneven impact across regions
The impact of the disruption varies across markets. Shipments to the Middle East have also been affected, but the impact is less severe compared to long-haul routes.

“Middle East shipments are also seeing some impact due to higher costs and operational disruptions, though relatively less than long-haul routes,” Khakhar said.

However, for routes to the US, the combined effect of higher costs, tighter capacity and longer transit times is more pronounced. This could affect overall export volumes if conditions persist.

A test for India’s export competitiveness
The current situation highlights a broader challenge for India’s mango export sector. While global demand is rising and production remains strong, logistics continues to act as a limiting factor.

According to APEDA data, global mango exports are expected to grow by around 8 to 9% in 2026. At the same time, import demand in key markets like the US is increasing, creating opportunities for exporters.

However, the ability to capture this opportunity depends on the efficiency and resilience of the logistics network. For Indian exporters, the recent disruption has shown that external factors such as geopolitical events can quickly affect trade flows.

As the season progresses, exporters will be closely watching freight rates, capacity availability and transit reliability. The experience of companies like Kaybee Exports suggests that while demand conditions are favourable, the success of the season will depend on how well exporters can navigate a still-recovering air cargo system.