AI chip shipments lift global air cargo demand by 7% in June

Global air cargo demand increased 7% year-on-year in June, driven by strong shipments of semiconductors and AI-related hardware, while the growth in spot rates continued to slow as the market began to stabilise, according to the latest market data from Xeneta.

Global air cargo spot rates, valid for up to one month, increased 38% year-on-year to an average of $3.40 per kg in June. However, the pace of growth slowed from 41% in May, reflecting easing market conditions following the reduction in Middle East tensions, the return of capacity through major Gulf airport hubs and lower jet fuel prices.

Xeneta said AI-related shipments have continued to offset the decline in e-commerce traffic, which had been the main driver of air cargo growth over the past two to three years.

Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, described the June demand growth as "remarkable", saying current air cargo volumes are being supported largely by AI-related shipments on Asia Pacific-North America routes.

He said AI accounts for less than 10%  of total air cargo volumes but has become the main driver of market growth. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year-on-year in April, rising 106% , the strongest increase since records began in 1986. This has made the transpacific corridor the strongest air freight route this year despite weaker China-US volumes due to tariffs.

Xeneta also pointed to broader economic indicators supporting the AI trend. Taiwan, which produces most of the world's advanced semiconductor chips, recorded real GDP growth of 15%  in the first quarter of 2026, its fastest quarterly expansion in almost 50 years. In South Korea, the country's two largest chipmakers now account for more than half of the total value of the Seoul stock exchange after their market values roughly doubled and tripled this year.

Although global air freight rates are easing month-on-month, rates on routes benefiting most from AI demand continue to rise. Rates from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America increased 41% and 42% respectively in the final week of June compared with late February.

Xeneta said rates on routes into the Middle East remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, including increases of 88%  from South Asia, 46% from Southeast Asia and 79% from Europe. However, prices on these corridors are now moving down as capacity returns.

Van de Wouw said the recent US-Iran conflict had changed market conditions, pushing spot rates much higher than expected. He added that rates are now beginning to decline, although more slowly than they had increased.

On transatlantic routes, summer passenger schedules have increased belly cargo capacity, resulting in rates from Europe to North America falling 25% compared with late-February winter schedule levels.

Despite the easing in rates, demand remains strong. Global air cargo demand grew 7% in June, while supply increased by only 3%, mainly because of the return of capacity previously affected by disruptions in the Middle East. As a result, Xeneta's dynamic load factor, which measures capacity utilisation based on cargo volume and available capacity, increased by three percentage points year-on-year to 62%.

Van de Wouw said the air freight market has continued to adapt despite uncertainty and has demonstrated its ability to respond quickly to changing conditions.

According to Xeneta's latest Air Freight Outlook Update, demand growth during the first six months of 2026 reached 4% year-on-year, despite expectations of a quieter market.

Xeneta also said recent market developments show that air freight pricing is driven more by supply and demand than by fuel costs. During the Iran conflict, jet fuel prices increased, but transatlantic freight rates declined. Van de Wouw said Xeneta continues to recommend that freight pricing mechanisms should be based on actual airline freight rates rather than jet fuel costs.

Meanwhile, e-commerce continues to weaken. China's low-value and e-commerce exports declined 7% year-on-year in May, marking the sixth consecutive monthly fall. Exports to Europe dropped 15%and shipments to Asia Pacific fell 4%, while exports to the United States increased 26% but remained below levels seen before the removal of the de minimis exemption.

Xeneta said some of the decline may reflect a shift from individual consumer parcels to consolidated air freight shipments, but the overall trend indicates that e-commerce is no longer the main growth engine for air freight.

The company also highlighted regulatory changes affecting cross-border e-commerce. From 1 July, the European Union removed its €150 de minimis exemption and introduced a flat €3 duty on each item shipped from outside the bloc. A further €2 handling fee is expected later this year, while France has moved to ban advertising by low-cost online platforms such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress.

Van de Wouw said Xeneta expects the sector to adapt to the new regulations, as it did following earlier changes in the United States, but added that e-commerce is no longer driving air freight growth.

The report also found that uncertainty over future market conditions is encouraging freight buyers to favour short-term contracts. The share of new shipper and forwarder agreements lasting up to three months increased to 58% in the second quarter of 2026 from 22 % a year earlier.

Similarly, the share of chargeable weight moving on the spot market between forwarders and airlines reached 49% in the second quarter, compared with 34% before the pandemic.

Van de Wouw said the high share of cargo moving under short-term agreements reflects continued uncertainty over where the market is heading. He advised shippers to delay committing to longer-term contracts because the overall trend in freight rates remains downward.

Looking ahead, he said AI is currently supporting global air cargo demand, but it is uncertain how long the trend will continue. He noted that previous growth drivers such as Covid-related demand and e-commerce had eventually slowed, although there are currently no signs that AI-related demand is beginning to plateau.

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