Xeneta raises 2026 air freight outlook

Xeneta has raised its 2026 air freight outlook, citing the ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict on global air cargo capacity, demand, and freight rates.

In its Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update, the market intelligence provider said it now expects shipper long-term air freight rates to increase by 5% to 15% this year, reversing its December 2025 forecast of a 5% to 10% decline. The revision follows the supply chain disruption caused by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in late February.

Xeneta also expects full-year demand growth to trend toward the upper end of its 2% to 3% forecast range, while capacity growth is now projected toward the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% range, compared with the 3% to 4% growth forecast issued in December.

According to the report, the escalation of the conflict on 28 February removed approximately 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight, limiting global capacity growth to 1% in the first half of 2026. During the same period, demand grew 4%, outpacing the original full-year forecast.

The resulting supply-demand imbalance pushed air freight rates higher, with global air cargo rates, including spot and long-term contracts, increasing 17% year on year in the first half of 2026, Xeneta said.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said, “Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling. Demand keeps defying gravity. Despite everything thrown at it, the market has still moved more volume than last year the engine just keeps running, and it is quite remarkable.”

Xeneta expects air cargo demand growth to moderate during the second half of 2026 as capacity gradually recovers from the disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. As supply and demand move closer to balance, market conditions are likely to become more favourable for shippers, although the company cautioned that continued uncertainty means the outlook remains subject to change.

AI demand surges as E-Commerce growth slows
Two key trends are shaping global air cargo demand in opposite directions. While e-commerce growth has slowed, shipments linked to artificial intelligence (AI) are accelerating, driven by rising demand for semiconductors and AI hardware. Global semiconductor sales surged 106% year on year in April 2026, marking the strongest growth since records began in 1986. Although AI-related goods account for less than 10% of global air cargo volumes, they are heavily concentrated on the Transpacific trade lane, which has emerged as the strongest-performing corridor this year.

In contrast, e-commerce demand has weakened. China's low-value and e-commerce exports declined 7% year on year in May 2026, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. The slowdown has been further exacerbated by regulatory changes in Europe. On 1 July 2026, the European Union scrapped its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports, replacing it with a flat €3 duty per item, with an additional €2 handling fee expected to be introduced in November. The measures are expected to further curb the low-value parcel trade that has been a major driver of e-commerce air cargo growth in recent years.

Van de Wouw explained, “I cannot see the e-commerce growth engine being revived. There will always be a consumer demand for cheap goods manufactured in Asia, but the extraordinary demand growth of recent years will not be sustained. E-commerce was air freight’s single biggest growth pillar, but that is no longer the case.”