China-Europe air cargo downturn weakens global July growth

Air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe fell for the sixth consecutive week from July 27 to August 2, weakening global air cargo growth in July. Higher costs and complexities following new European Union (EU) import rules introduced on July 1 have affected volumes and contributed to a decline in worldwide air cargo rates.

According to WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from mainland China to Europe fell 5% week on week (WoW) in week 31, while Hong Kong recorded a 3% decline. Compared with the same week last year, volumes were down 7% from China and 24% from Hong Kong.

For July as a whole, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe fell 19% compared with June and were 24% lower than in July 2025. Volumes from mainland China to Europe fell 3% month on month (MoM) in July and were 6% lower year on year (YoY).

China and Hong Kong combined tonnages to Europe fell 9% in July compared with June and were down 12% from July last year.

The decline has been more pronounced in Hong Kong, where the market is strongly driven by e-commerce. The end of the EU's tariff-free exemption for goods valued below €150 has affected this market.

China-Europe spot rates continue to fall
Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to Europe have also declined steadily over the six-week period.

Average spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe fell from $5.80 per kg in week 25 to $4.96 per kg in week 31, a 15% decline. Rates from mainland China fell from $5.43 per kg to $3.86 per kg during the same period, a 29% decline.

The figures are based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data.

Despite the recent decline, spot rates from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe remained 2% and 7% higher, respectively, than the same week last year. However, this was significantly lower than the 25% higher levels recorded during the previous three months.

Spot rates from several other Asia Pacific markets to Europe remained significantly higher year on year. Rates from Taiwan were up 33%, Vietnam 39% and Thailand 32% in week 31.

The fall in rates from China and Hong Kong reduced the overall increase in Asia Pacific-Europe spot rates from 39% in week 25 to 17% in week 31.

For July, spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to all destinations fell 10% compared with June to an average of $4.75 per kg. However, rates remained 29% higher than in July last year.

Worldwide average spot rates stood at $3.41 per kg in July, down 8% from June but 29% higher than the same month last year.

All major air cargo origin regions recorded a month-on-month decline in spot rates in July. Rates remained at least 20% higher year on year in all regions except Central and South America, where they were 5% higher.

The elevated rates reflect higher fuel surcharges this year following a rise in jet fuel prices caused by the US-Iran war, along with supply-demand imbalances and disruptions partly linked to the conflict. Strong demand for capacity from sectors such as AI-driven data centre infrastructure has also contributed to the higher rates.

Worldwide air cargo tonnage rises 5% in July
Worldwide air cargo tonnages increased 2% in July compared with June, taking chargeable weight 5% higher than in July last year.

However, July's 5% YoY growth was lower than the 9% recorded in June. Growth from Asia Pacific origins almost halved from 11% in June to 6% in July.

Growth from Europe origins fell from 8% to 3%, while Middle East and South Asia (MESA) declined from 12% to 4%.

Worldwide air cargo capacity increased slightly by 1% WoW in week 31.

Capacity to and from MESA markets recovered 5% WoW, linked to another relative easing of tensions in the Gulf. Capacity from Asia Pacific also increased 2% following another typhoon that had affected parts of the region.

MESA capacity in week 31 remained around 11% below its level in week 7, before the US-Israel attacks on Iran. Gulf capacity recovered to 20% below pre-war levels in week 31, compared with 27% below those levels in week 30.