Air cargo demand rises 6% in August as rates stay elevated

Global air cargo demand continued to show resilience in August, with volumes increasing 6% year-on-year, according to industry analysts Xeneta.

The growth followed a 5% year-on-year increase in July, extending the strong performance of the air cargo market through the traditionally quieter summer period.

While the pace of spot rate growth continued to moderate, rates remained significantly above last year’s levels. Global air cargo spot rates averaged $3.13 per kg in August, up 24% year-on-year.

The rate increase marked the third consecutive month of slower annual growth, easing from 41% in May to 38% in June and 28% in July. On a monthly basis, spot rates declined 3% in August, compared with a 6% drop in July.

The continued strength in cargo volumes suggests that shippers may have to wait longer for a more significant decline in elevated air freight rates.

Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, said, “Rates are easing their way down month-on-month, and the gap to last year’s levels is narrowing, perfectly in line with what we expected, and airlines will be hoping to hold on at the current level until the busier season starts.”

Despite the recent decline in air freight rates, shippers continue to push for further reductions as prices remain 24% above year-ago levels. However, Xeneta said it is not seeing signs of a significant demand increase in the coming months and expects rates to decline further, although at a slower pace than shippers would prefer. The market remains favourable to carriers, with demand continuing to grow faster than available capacity.

Shippers are meanwhile increasing their reliance on the short-term market, hoping that the month-on-month decline in rates will accelerate and provide greater relief to shipping budgets. However, stronger demand relative to supply, coupled with rising jet fuel prices in recent weeks, is limiting the pace of the decline.

Air cargo capacity was flat year-on-year in August, while Xeneta’s dynamic load factor, which measures capacity utilisation based on cargo volume and weight against available capacity, rose by three percentage points from August 2025 to 61%.

China's e-commerce exports to Europe fall -25% as EU duty bites
The data points to a clear structural shift in the air cargo market, driven largely by weaker e-commerce volumes. According to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of China Customs data, China’s low-value and e-commerce exports declined 11% year-on-year in July 2026.

Europe recorded the sharpest decline, with exports falling 25% from a year earlier. The drop appears to be an immediate response to the EU’s removal of the €150 duty-free threshold for low-value goods on July 1 and the introduction of a flat €3 customs duty per item.

However, Xeneta expects the impact on China-Europe e-commerce volumes to be temporary. A similar pattern was seen after the US removed its de minimis threshold in 2025, when China’s e-commerce exports initially declined before recovering. By July 2026, China-US e-commerce shipments were 23% higher year-on-year, although from a lower base.

Xeneta expects China-Europe e-commerce volumes to follow a similar recovery path, although the longer-term impact of the EU’s policy changes remains uncertain.

Corridors diverge beneath the global rate
Elsewhere, air freight rates across major trade corridors continued to be driven primarily by supply and demand dynamics rather than fuel prices.

During week 35 (August 24–30), spot rates to the Middle East remained significantly above pre-conflict levels recorded in late February, rising 100% from South Asia, 66% from Europe, 21% from Northeast Asia and 20% from Southeast Asia.

On the transpacific, strong demand for AI-related shipments continued to support rates. Spot rates from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America were 36% and 34% above late-February levels, respectively. Northeast Asia–North America rates averaged USD 5.76 per kg in August, up 2% month-on-month.

Transatlantic markets showed a contrasting trend, with ample summer belly capacity keeping Europe–North America spot rates 25% below late-February levels. However, the route showed early signs of strengthening, with rates increasing 2% month-on-month in August.