Page 14 - The STAT Trade Times August 2024 for Website

Freighter Fleet Forecast
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Replacement and Growth retiring airplanes, and the remainder In fact, the rising curve for air cago
expanding the fleet to meet projected Freighter Fleet to Grow by Nearly 1,400 Aircraft by 2041
Our freighter fleet forecast points to traffic growth. Roughly two thirds of all demand is going nowhere. In the wake of
3,610 airplanes in service by 2041, an deliveries will be freighter conversions 4,000 3,610 COVID-19 pandemic when people stopped
increase of 80% against the in-service of passenger airplanes, about 70% of travelled and started transporting more
2019 fleet of 2,010. which will be standard body aircraft. 3,500 parcel, be it the life-saving drugs, vaccines
Pre-pandemic, the 2019 world freighter Reflecting the higher traffic growth or e-commerce parcels, air cargo sector saw
fleet consisted of 2,010 jet airplanes. outlook, as well as higher replacement 3,000 a massive boost. As a result, a lot of new
By the end of 2021, the fleet had needs, this year’s forecast is up nearly players in the P2F conversions was born.
grown to 2,250 freighters. At the same 7% over last year, with increases 2,500 2,240
time, freighter utilization operated at across all segments. 2,010 515 For instance, Mammoth Freighters was es-
approximately 125% of normal levels. In the standard body segment, the fleet 2,000 tablished in 2020 while Kansas Modification
The return of parked airplanes to the is projected to grow by 90% over 2021 Center (KMC) was founded in 2021.
fleet, combined with higher-than- levels, as viable feedstock becomes 1,500 1,300 Deliveries 555
normal operations levels, has added more available and e-commerce 2,795 What do OEMs think about this
much-needed capacity, and will fulfill network growth boosts demand. 1,000
replacement demands throughout the The segment will continue to see growth?
forecast period. conversions to meet growth and 500 425 The demand for air cargo is expected to in-
Over the next 20 years, the freighter replacement demand, with a projected 2019 2021 2041 crease significantly over the next 20 years.
fleet will grow from pre-pandemic levels 1,300 conversions. On the replacement Mammoth Freighters forecasts a need for
by 80%, which represents 3% average side, more efficient airplanes will New Large Widebody New Medium Widebody over 2,600 freighters, including 1,000 large
annual fleet growth. We forecast increase sustainability—and further Widebody Conversion Standard Body Conversion widebody freighters, with the Boeing 777
approximately 2,800 production- boost capacity, as today’s conversions Source: Boeing Market Analysis CMO 2022 – Forecast period 2022–2041
plus conversion deliveries, with are larger than many of the airplanes expected to capture a significant market
approximately half of them replacing being replaced. share due to its superior operating eco-
production freighters, including A330- towards sustainability. These factors nomics and fuel-efficient engines.
200P2F and A321-200P2F, stated to The combined contribute to the demand for Additionally, Boeing's World Air Cargo
STAT Trade Times, "The availability of air- freighter conversions, allowing operators Forecast (WACF) 2022-2041 predicts sub-
craft has been a significant factor in driv- to efficiently and sustainably meet the stantial growth in air cargo, driven by the
ing the conversion of passenger aircraft growing logistical demands. expansion of e-commerce. Global e-com-
to freighters, along with cost. We address Adding to the discussion, Leonard merce revenues are projected to double
technical and operational challenges as- Rodrigues, Director of Revenue Manage- from pre-pandemic levels, reaching $8.1
sociated with these conversions through ment & Network Planning at Etihad Cargo, trillion by 2026. This will lead to a greater
early stakeholder engagement and by highlighted the significant increase in air need for air cargo capacity, especially for
allowing buffer time in our schedules to cargo demand over the past two years, cross-border e-commerce and emerging
mitigate any unexpected delays." again driven by the surge in Chinese markets with limited ground logistics.
"Looking ahead, we're seeing a trend to- e-commerce and new technologies. He
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World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 ward larger narrow aircraft with limited op- noted that production freighters could not According to Boeing, freighter
tions in the 10 to 20-tonne payload range. keep up with the rising demand, result- aeroplanes are categorised by
There are also increased options for multiple ing in a shift from 45% of cargo being capacity:
aircraft conversions," said the spokesperson transported on freighters and 55% in the ƒ Standard body: <45 tonnes, primarily
for the Australian airline. Qantas Freight, belly hold of passenger aircraft in 2019 converted from passenger planes.
a subsidiary of Qantas, an independent to 55% on freighters and 45% in the belly ƒ Medium widebody: 40-80 tonnes,
Australian air freight services business that hold post-Covid. Rodrigues emphasised sourced from conversions and factory
ships more than 4,000 air freight items that the demand for air cargo is growing production.
to over 500 destinations globally daily, faster than the demand for wide body ƒ Large freighters: >80 tonnes, with future
operates aircraft that are converted from passenger aircraft. demand favouring factory production.
passenger aircraft, with the average lifes- Despite using all-new production Boeing predicts substantial growth
pan of a freighter aircraft around 35 years, freighters, Etihad Cargo believes conver- in the freighter fleet over the next two
informed the Qantas spokesperson. sions are necessary to ensure supply decades, with the number of airplanes
Similarly, during a recent interview, Or meets demand. Rodrigues mentioned expected to increase from 2,010 in 2019 to
Zak, COO at Challenge Group highlighted Abu Dhabi's role in the 777 Big Twin 3,610 by 2041, representing a 3% average
the increasing demand for freighter conversion and highlighted the company's annual growth. The company forecasts
conversions in the aviation market. The focus on operating with production approximately 2,800 deliveries, with half
demand is driven by global trade and freighters while maintaining the option of replacing retiring aeroplanes. The majority
e-commerce growth, which has led to a converting passenger aircraft as needed to of these deliveries will involve conversions,
significant need for cargo capacity. prioritise having more passenger aircraft. particularly of standard-body aircraft, and
The spokesperson added that passen- This view is not isolated. In fact, airlines are driven by the increasing demand for e-
ger carriers' retirement of older aircraft like Challenge Group and Etihad, along commerce and express cargo operations.
also presents an opportunity for conver- with OEMs such as Boeing, Airbus and The Asia-Pacific region is expected to
sions, aligning with the industry's push Embraer, share a similar perspective. significantly drive this growth, requiring
12 | AUGUST 2024 www.stattimes.com