China eCommerce exports stay in the red

China's low-value e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026, extending a contraction that has persisted across the past six months, according to the latest data from Trade and Transport Group's analysis of China Customs figures.

The decline is consistent with a trend that has gathered momentum since mid-2025. Trade and Transport Group data shows year-on-year growth turning negative from around September 2025, with monthly readings since then ranging between -4% and -11% before May’s -7% reading. The 12-month moving average, which peaked at 38.3% growth in 2024, has visibly flattened, and the January-to-May 2026 cumulative figure stands at -7.3%.

The absence of any pre-emptive surge to Europe is a notable finding. Despite a new €3-per-item customs charge due to take effect on 1 July, exports to the European Union recorded a 32% decline in April, with the January-to-May period down 20.4%. Whether June data will reveal a last-minute uptick in traffic ahead of the threshold change remains to be seen.

China-to-US shipments posted a 26% year-on-year increase in May, a figure that warrants context. May 2025 itself recorded a 40% decline, meaning the current recovery is measured against a deeply suppressed base. Volumes remain substantially below pre-de minimis levels following the scrapping of the exemption.

What has partially filled the resulting gap in the US market is conventional air cargo, particularly in technology-related shipments. No comparable substitution effect has emerged in Europe, where the structural void left by the contraction in low-value parcel flows remains unfilled.

Guangdong Province and Shanghai are the dominant origin points for these exports, with Asia Pacific, led by Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan, accounting for the largest share of destination markets over the past 12 months, followed by Europe and the Americas.

In a notable move, Cainiao has introduced its “on-time guarantee” service for China–US and China–Germany routes, pledging cross-border parcel delivery within 10 and 8 calendar days, respectively. If a shipment arrives late, compensation is triggered automatically.

Following its earlier rollout of a 5-day guarantee in the UK, this marks the first time Cainiao has extended the product to the US and mainland Europe. Traditionally, cross-border e-commerce delivery times have been little more than estimates. With this launch, Cainiao, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, is turning speed into a firm commitment, giving sellers and consumers greater confidence and certainty.

On the eve of the FIFA World Cup, Cainiao rolled out two new US-dedicated lines; the Priority Light Parcel Line and the California Line. These are to help merchants move World Cup bestsellers more efficiently. The tiered model targets different needs: lightweight, high-volume items move faster through the Priority Light Parcel Line, while the California Line offers cost-effective fulfilment into the West Coast.

With demand surging at this World Cup moment, Cainiao is strengthening its North American network, giving Chinese products a faster, more reliable path to the global stage.