Air freight rates set to ease, but full recovery months away

The US-Iran ceasefire is expected to bring some near-term relief to the battered air freight market, but a full return to pre-conflict capacity and pricing on routes transiting Middle East hubs remains one to two months away, freight intelligence firm Xeneta warned in a release dated April 9, 2026.

Airspace restrictions imposed across the Gulf following the US-Iran conflict forced airlines to ground aircraft and slash capacity on critical freight corridors, sending spot rates soaring. According to Xeneta data for the week ending April 5, air cargo spot rates surged 105% on the South Asia to Europe corridor. Rates on other key lanes were also sharply elevated — up 87% from Europe to the Middle East, 84% from South Asia to the Middle East, 82% from South Asia to North America, and 72% from Southeast Asia to Europe.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer, characterised the crisis as fundamentally a supply-side problem. “This has been a supply issue from the start," he said. “The moment airlines start increasing flights through Middle East airspace, it will put less pressure on the existing capacity and create a downward pressure on rates."

He added that restoring air capacity would offer "welcome relief for shippers, many of whom are facing continuing severe disruption in ocean supply chains which will take far longer to recover from this conflict."

Falling jet fuel prices are expected to add further downward pressure on rates. However, van de Wouw cautioned against expecting a swift reversal. "Even when it is deemed safe to fly, setting up the infrastructure again takes time. Customers need to find you again and trust you again. Insurance companies may still advise against transiting these Middle East hubs despite the ceasefire," he said.

Carriers, he noted, have little incentive to reduce rates quickly given the fragile nature of the agreement. Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz within hours of the ceasefire announcement has done little to inspire confidence. "A two-week timeline is too short to justify restructuring freight plans — so I do not expect spot rates to go down as fast as they went up," van de Wouw said.

Passenger confidence emerged as another critical variable. Gulf carriers such as Emirates and Qatar Airways underpin major global air freight networks, but those networks are financially dependant on passenger revenue. If tourist confidence in Middle East destinations lags behind the ceasefire, airlines may be forced to trim network capacity, further constraining freight supply.

"Will airlines operate those routes or cut their networks based on demand? This is a key variable for the short-term recovery for air freight," van de Wouw concluded.