Tariff tensions drove a $157 billion air cargo surge in early 2025

Air cargo played a critical role in sustaining global trade and supporting economic growth in 2025 amid rising tariffs and shifting trade policies. During the first quarter of 2025, air cargo facilitated the frontloading of $157 billion worth of imports into the United States. In the same period, total US imports rose by $193 billion year-on-year, representing a 26 percent increase, with the majority of the surge transported by air.

2025 was characterised by an unusually restrictive and volatile trade policy environment in the United States, affecting global economic activity. Average applied US tariffs rose to around 17 percent, a level last observed in the 1930s. Tariff increases were not the only source of friction, though. Other measures, including the curtailing of the de minimis exemption that previously allowed low-value shipments to enter the United States duty-free and supported the rapid expansion of e-commerce, further constrained market access. In addition, trade policy changed frequently, and market participants faced limited clarity regarding the timing and product coverage of new tariffs. As a result, trade policy uncertainty rose to record levels

According to a new report released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) at the World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Peru, air freight helped businesses adapt to global trade disruptions while supporting the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) supply chains. The surge was largely driven by rising trade tensions and tariff hikes.

The increase in tariffs and frequent policy shifts created significant uncertainty for global businesses, prompting many companies to rely on air cargo to move goods quickly before new duties could take effect.

Beyond the frontloading effect, the report also found that companies began restructuring their supply chains to reduce exposure to tariffs. US importers shifted sourcing away from heavily tariffed trading partners, while exporters redirected shipments to alternative markets, particularly in Europe. Air cargo proved crucial in enabling this rapid geographical reallocation of high-value and time-sensitive trade.

Between April and December 2025, expanding trade lanes benefited significantly from air cargo capacity. US imports on expanding trade routes increased by $213 billion, of which $174 billion, about 82 percent , was transported by air. By contrast, imports on contracting trade lanes declined by $257 billion, with only $77 billion typically carried by air cargo. A similar pattern was observed in Europe, where air freight carried 48 percent of gains on expanding trade lanes but only 3 percent of losses on contracting ones, highlighting air cargo’s role in enabling rapid shifts in global trade flows.

Another major driver of air cargo demand in 2025 was the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence industry. The report notes that air cargo transported more than two-thirds of the total value of global AI-related goods, including servers, data storage equipment, memory chips, and other high-value technology components essential for AI infrastructure.

Shipments of AI-related goods carried by air grew 20 percent year-on-year, reflecting strong global demand for advanced computing technologies. In total, AI-related products accounted for 53.5 percent of the total value of goods transported by air cargo, despite representing only 7 percent of the overall cargo volume, underscoring their high value density and strategic importance to the industry.

According to Julia Seiermann, IATA’s Head of Industry Analysis, Air cargo has become a key pillar of global economic resilience during periods of trade disruption. She noted that in 2025, air cargo helped businesses absorb tariff shocks, restructure trade flows quickly, and support the continued expansion of AI investment, ultimately helping sustain global trade and economic growth during a challenging period.

Despite significant policy headwinds and geopolitical uncertainties, global trade expanded by 2.4 percent in 2025, exceeding earlier forecasts by the World Trade Organization, while global GDP grew by 3.2 percent. The report concludes that as economies increasingly depend on high-value and technology-driven industries, air cargo will remain a critical component of global supply chains, ensuring the rapid and reliable movement of time-sensitive goods across international markets.