Mind the gap: New freighters are late. Old ones are tiring

Airbus and Boeing are both running behind schedule on their next large freighters. Airbus launched the A350F in July 2021 for entry into service in 2025. The aircraft's first test flight took off on September 29, 2026, and Airbus now expects EASA certification in 2027 and first deliveries in the second half of that year. Boeing launched the 777-8F in January 2022 with first delivery planned for 2027. That has slipped to around 2029.

Airbus reported 115 A350F orders at the end of August 2026, led by Atlas Air with 20. Air China Cargo, Etihad Airways, Starlux and lessor AviLease have committed to ten each. Boeing reported 89 firm 777-8F orders in October, including 34 from launch customer Qatar Airways, ten from Cargolux and eight from Ethiopian Airlines.

The 777-8F has the higher maximum structural payload: 118 tonnes against 111 tonnes for the A350F. At comparable loads, Boeing quotes a range of 5,000 nautical miles with 110 tonnes, while Airbus quotes 4,700 nautical miles with 109 tonnes.

John Perdoch, Boeing’s Regional Director for Product Marketing — 777X and Freighters, says the 777-8F combines that payload with 27,056 cubic feet of cargo volume to serve both dense general freight and lighter express shipments. “The composition of cargo is shifting toward higher-value, time-sensitive and technology-intensive products. Air cargo demand is evolving, not just growing,” he says.

Crawford Hamilton, Head of Freighter Marketing at Airbus, puts loading capability at the centre of the A350F’s design. “It’s got an all-new cargo loading system. It’s got the big door,” he says. Airbus says the rear main-deck door has a clear opening of about 4.3 metres, wide enough for long pallets and aircraft engines including the GE9X and Rolls-Royce Trent XWB.

Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing, offered a different reading at the Air Cargo Forum in Miami. “While the freighter door of the A350 is wider, we would argue that Airbus wouldn’t make it wider unless they had to,” he said. “The reason they had to make it wider is because the fuselage is narrower.”

On fuel burn, the manufacturers use different benchmarks. Airbus projects the A350F will burn about 20% less fuel than the current 777F and 40% less than the 747-400F. Hulst argues that the 777-8F will burn less fuel than the A350F when both carry the same tonnage. For Hamilton, the comparison has to include the return sector, where an operator may carry a lighter load at a lower rate. “What it’s about is network economics,” he says.

“You get a big economic case for [the A350F], particularly at high utilisations, and then what you get from that is you get the schedule integrity that supply chains really need today.”
Crawford Hamilton, Airbus

Demand vs supply
The immediate demand picture explains why those production schedules matter. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recorded a 3.4% increase in global cargo tonne-kilometres in 2025, while available cargo tonne-kilometres increased 3.7%. In January–September 2026, demand grew 5%, against capacity growth of 1.7%. September alone brought demand growth of 7.7% and capacity growth of 2.7%. IATA’s analysis found that the value of AI-related goods transported by air increased 20% in 2025, with these goods accounting for 53.5% of air-transported trade by value but only 7% by volume in its reporting sample. IATA identifies AI-related shipments as a contributor to the expansion of Asia–North America cargo traffic, which grew 17% year-on-year in September 2026, alongside stronger global trade and manufacturing.

The gap also reflects how much of the available fleet can actually be deployed. Marco Bloemen, Managing Director at Aevean, estimates that global air cargo demand will grow by roughly 4–5% in 2026, while capacity growth will remain below 2%, largely because of disruption from the Gulf conflict.

“We were looking at roughly 5 to 6% growth, if it wasn’t for the conflict, on capacity for ’26,” he says. “The Gulf conflict really took out a lot of capacity, and we’re normalising a bit now, but we’re not exactly there.”

That creates the possibility of stronger capacity growth in 2027 without a corresponding surge in aircraft deliveries. A recovery in operations could restore capacity, while freighters delivered during 2026 would contribute a full year of flying. Bloemen makes that outlook conditional on there being no further disruption in the Middle East.

“We’re actually going to see quite a bit of capacity growth next year,” he says, pointing to both the potential recovery and “the amount of freighters that will fly fully the next year that have been delivered this year.”

However, additional capacity will not necessarily arrive on the routes experiencing the strongest demand. Bloemen identifies a concentration of new freighter capacity among Middle Eastern operators, while the strongest demand growth has been across the Pacific. “It’s not only about the global number,” he says. “It’s really about demand-capacity relationships by trade.”

The mismatch between demand and capacity also helps explain why dedicated freighters remain important as passenger belly space returns. Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting at Rotate, says passenger networks do not necessarily serve the markets where cargo demand is strongest.

“Airlines and shippers and forwarders have seen the importance of dedicated freighters, in part because demand has become more concentrated,” he says.

Van Leeuwen estimates that about 40% of global air cargo demand originates in China, while China accounts for a much smaller share of international passenger traffic. That leaves less belly capacity out of China than its share of cargo demand would suggest. Dedicated freighters can help close that gap by flying the routes where shippers need capacity.

That flexibility is already influencing deployment. As China–Europe e-commerce weakened, van Leeuwen observed airlines shifting freighters towards other markets. “They pull capacity from Europe, and in September they started operating more into North America, into Southeast Asia, etc., in order to again reroute capacity to where the demand is,” he says.

Boeing and Airbus agree that the freighter fleet will expand substantially, but differ on the scale. Boeing’s October 2026 forecast projects growth from 2,395 freighters in 2025 to 4,010 in 2045, with 2,930 new and converted aircraft required. About 55% of deliveries would support growth and 45% replace older aircraft. Airbus projects an increase from 2,360 to 3,460, requiring 2,670 deliveries: 1,580 for replacement and 1,090 for growth. Their annual cargo traffic growth assumptions are 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively.

“Airlines pulled capacity from Europe, and in September they started operating more into North America, into Southeast Asia, etc., in order to again reroute capacity to where the demand is.”
Tim van Leeuwen, Rotate

The 777F carries the load
For now, the production 777F remains central to that supply. Boeing delivered 20 in the first nine months of 2026, compared with 29 in the same period of 2025 and 35 across that full year. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) exemption granted in September gives Boeing scope to supply another 35 aircraft beyond the emissions deadline taking effect in January 2028. It extends the production aircraft’s role while customers await the 777-8F.

However, in October 2026, Reuters reported that a dispute with supplier Vaero over wing components had halted 777F production for nearly two months. That disruption affects a highly productive fleet. Boeing says more than 330 production 777Fs are in service and that the type has overtaken the in-service 747 freighter fleet across all variants. It is now the most widely operated large widebody freighter. Its high utilisation on long-haul routes gives it around 40% of global freighter capacity, according to Boeing.

Perdoch puts average daily utilisation at about 13.4 hours and schedule reliability at 99.6%. The significance is not simply the number of aircraft: a reliable freighter flying more hours supplies more capacity from the same asset. “When many people think of air cargo, they still picture the 747. For me — it’s the 777 Freighter,” Perdoch says.

Hulst points to high utilisation as evidence of both demand for capacity and the aircraft’s operational performance. “It speaks to the reliability. It speaks to the capability of the triple seven freighter and what it has allowed airlines globally to do with that capacity and that capability as part of their dedicated freighter fleets,” he says.

He illustrates that productivity through an Ethiopian Airlines 777F that logged 6,250 flight hours in a single year. According to Hulst, the aircraft was on the ground for 20 days, meaning it averaged more than 18 flying hours on the days it operated. Across the large freighter fleet, he sees sustained high utilisation as a signal that operators could deploy additional aircraft. “If there was more capacity, there would be more deployed,” he says.

“When many people think of air cargo, they still picture the 747. For me — it’s the 777 Freighter. It is now the most widely operated large freighter in service. This shift is only beginning. In the next 10-20 years, the global fleet will include significantly more 777 Freighters and 777-8 Freighters."
John Perdoch, Boeing

The 747 still has a job
The transition to twin-engine aircraft does not remove every requirement for the 747. As of year-end 2025, the global in-service large widebody freighter fleet reached 637 aircraft—representing a modest net growth of 117 units since 2013, during which time the Boeing 777 fleet tripled in size to establish market dominance at 50% (317 units), closely followed by the Boeing 747 at 48% (308 units), according to the data from Transport Research Advisory.

Ageing aircraft can also contribute less capacity before they retire. Bloemen says the industry needs to watch utilisation as well as fleet exits, particularly as older 747-400s face fuel and maintenance pressures. An aircraft remaining on the register does not guarantee the same number of productive flying hours.

“So far we have not seen many retirements, but we will see utilisation go down for 747-400s, especially with current fuel prices as they are and also with all kinds of maintenance issues that those aircraft may have. So that will take capacity out,” says Bloemen.

Or Zak, Group Chief Commercial Officer, Challenge Group, however, expects the 747 to remain in its operations for the foreseeable future. Its nose-loading capability provides access for certain long, oversized and complex shipments that other freighters cannot accommodate as easily. “Importantly, we see the 777 as a complement to our existing Boeing 747 and 767 freighters, rather than a replacement,” the group says.

That distinction matters when assessing supply. New aircraft can replace carrying capacity across many routes while leaving specialised shipments dependent on a smaller pool of suitable equipment.

“777-300ERSF is particularly well suited to volume-driven cargo operations. We match aircraft capabilities with the specific requirements of each route and customer segment.”
Or Zak, Challenge Group

The converted 777 takes its place
The first of the new 777 conversion programmes to enter service was Israel Aerospace Industries’ (IAI) 777-300ERSF, developed with AerCap and marketed as the Big Twin. AerCap announced the delivery of the first two aircraft to Kalitta Air in September 2025, including the certification prototype. The aircraft were part of a seven-aircraft order.

It has a 100-tonne payload capability and 811 cubic metres of cargo volume. The distinction between volume and payload is central to the aircraft’s proposition: additional space is valuable when operators can fill it without first reaching weight limits. IAI reported 11 converted aircraft in operation in July 2026, with more than 20,000 cumulative flight hours.

The customer base is expanding. AerCap signed leases with Turkish Airlines in October 2026 for two aircraft scheduled for delivery between March and September 2027. They will be converted at Etihad Engineering in Abu Dhabi. AerCap has also signed agreements with Ethiopian Airlines for two and China Southern Group for three, alongside deliveries to Fly Meta. Etihad Cargo is separately acquiring a 777-300ERSF expected to enter service after Chinese New Year in 2027 alongside an A330-200P2F purchase, allowing Etihad to expand before its first A350Fs arrive at the end of 2028.

Conversion infrastructure is expanding too. Alongside IAI’s Israeli facilities, the network includes Etihad Engineering in Abu Dhabi and Sharp Technics K in Incheon. In October, IAI and Ascent Aviation Services inducted World Star Aviation’s first aircraft at Marana, Arizona, where Ascent will operate two parallel conversion lines.

Challenge’s plan illustrates the demand behind that investment. Challenge Group has inducted two Boeing 777-300ERSF Big Twin freighters since February 2026. It intends to add one more in 2026. “Looking ahead, we expect to introduce another three Boeing 777-300ERSF aircraft in 2027, followed by four additional aircraft in subsequent years. This would bring our Boeing 777 freighter fleet to a minimum of ten aircraft, supporting our longer-term ambition of operating a fleet of at least 20 freighters across different aircraft types,” says Zak.

“This has been a continuous process of operational learning and optimisation, allowing us to refine deployment decisions based on actual performance rather than theoretical assumptions,” he says. Zak describes the aircraft as particularly suited to volume-driven operations, while matching it to routes and cargo profiles rather than applying one deployment model everywhere.

Part of the original case for the 777-300ERSF was that express and e-commerce operators would fill the aircraft before reaching its payload limit, making the 25% more cargo volume it offers over the production 777F particularly valuable.

Frederic Horst, Managing Director at Trade and Transport Group, says the experience of operators flying e-commerce out of mainland China complicates that assumption. He points to production 777Fs carrying about 105 tonnes on those flights. Tightly packed textiles are one reason. As Horst puts it, “e-commerce can be quite dense if you pack it properly.” On such a load, a converted 777-300ER can reach its structural payload limit with cargo space still to spare.

In a market where capacity can earn revenue immediately, timing can outweigh an imperfect technical fit. “A suboptimal freighter today is better than a great freighter in four or five years’ time,” Horst says. He also cautions that a lease lasting eight to 12 years should not be justified solely by conditions expected to last one or two.

“Freight and general cargo haulers typically gravitate towards the highest density capability, so there is an attraction to the 200LR.”
Brian McCarthy, Mammoth Freighters

More programmes, different stages
Mammoth Freighters has two 777 conversion programmes. The shorter 777-200LRMF received FAA certification in April 2026. Mammoth delivered the first aircraft to lessor Jetran in August for DHL operations. A second, G-DHME for DHL Air UK, followed in early November. Jetran has ordered more than two dozen LRMFs, including 13 for DHL’s East Midlands operation.

Brian McCarthy, Mammoth’s VP of Marketing & Sales, says a third DHL aircraft is “just about ready to go.” Two more LRMFs for Qatar have completed conversion and await a final records audit before delivery.

The longer 777-300ERMF is still in testing. Ground tests have begun, and McCarthy expects the prototype build to be complete within 30 days. “We should be accomplishing a series of company flight tests starting mid-December,” he says. The FAA will set the formal flight-test schedule; Mammoth expects certification by March 2027.

The LRMF accommodates 27 standard main-deck pallets; the ERMF takes 33. “Freight and general cargo haulers typically gravitate towards the highest density capability, so there is an attraction to the 200LR,” McCarthy says. He sees the longer aircraft as “ideally suited for e-commerce and mixed cargo.” Both variants can take 9,000 lb (4,082 kg) per pallet position forward and aft of the wing, which McCarthy says allows operators to transfer loaded pallets directly from a factory-built freighter.

Mammoth plans up to nine conversion lines: five at Aspire MRO in Fort Worth, two at STS Aviation Services in Manchester and two at STAECO in Qingdao, where the first aircraft was inducted in October.

However, AviaAM Leasing, part of Avia Solutions Group, has sold the 777-300ER aircraft it had previously inducted into Mammoth's conversion programme. “We took the decision to sell because current market valuations made an outright sale more attractive than proceeding with the conversion programme, allowing us to realise value from these assets,” Avia Solutions Group says in a response.

Kansas Modification Center (KMC) offers another approach through its 777-300ERCF, developed with Wichita State University’s NIAR WERX. Its design places the main-deck cargo door forward of the wing, with KMC arguing that the arrangement reduces added weight and simplifies handling. For Boeing, these programmes have a role alongside factory-built aircraft. “The current 777 conversion programmes provide an important bridge to the future 777-8 Freighter,” Perdoch says.

Trade and Transport Group estimates that the large widebody freighter fleet could grow from 717 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 834 by the end of 2030, averaging about 3.1% annually, provided there are no further certification or delivery delays. Its projection includes 28 aircraft added between January and September 2026, followed by 31 deliveries from the existing 777F backlog, 35 additional 777Fs, 79 A350Fs, 31 777-8Fs and 80 converted 777 freighters. These additions would be partly offset by the retirement of 167 aircraft, comprising 77 MD-11s and 90 747s. Horst warns that continued demand for passenger aircraft could restrict the feedstock available for conversion, making the projected fleet expansion difficult to achieve.

Boeing reported 38 unfilled 777F orders on 30 September 2026, but Trade and Transport used 31 in the data after excluding six aircraft still listed for Volga-Dnepr and accounting for the delivery of a 777F to China Cargo Airlines on 5 October 2026. Saudia Cargo took delivery of a separate 777F on 28 October 2026.

“In a market where you can earn money, a suboptimal freighter today is better than a great freighter in four or five years’ time.”
Frederic Horst, Trade and Transport Group

Could the 787 replace the 767 freighter?
Asked at the TIACA Air Cargo Forum in Miami what might replace the 767 freighter, Boeing’s Darren Hulst named the 787. “The 787 platform makes the most sense in terms of supporting that demand,” says Hulst.

What those customers need depends on where they fly. Van Leeuwen points out that the 767 earned its place in express networks carrying a useful payload at a reasonable cost on routes within the US, Europe and Asia. Integrators already have 777s for their longer sectors. An airline, on the other hand, might value enough range to fly from Latin America beyond Miami without giving up payload.

Horst sees a case for the 787-9 in particular. By his estimate, a converted 787-9 could offer around 130 kilos of payload per cubic metre of cargo space, close to the design density of the 767-300 freighter. But it explains the attraction: an operator moving up to a larger aircraft could carry much the same mix of general freight without having to find lighter, bulkier shipments to fill the extra space.

One of the hardest questions is how to put a main-deck cargo door into a passenger aircraft built with composite fuselage barrels. Cutting the opening changes how the fuselage carries loads around it. A converter would have to design and certify the reinforcement around the door, and the weight of that reinforcement would count against the payload the finished aircraft could carry.

Even if a converter solves the door problem, it still has to buy a passenger 787 at a price that works for a freighter. Horst sees a particular difficulty on express routes: an integrator flying an aircraft for only a few hours a day has fewer flying hours over which to recover the purchase and conversion costs. And operators can make another choice while Boeing weighs its options. An airline that commits to the A330 and pays to introduce it into its fleet may have little incentive to switch again.

Bloemen says the type is still relatively young and popular with passenger operators. With passenger traffic growing and new widebody deliveries limited, he doubts enough 787s will become available for conversion to make a material difference to freighter capacity within five years, or even ten. That leaves a gap between when cargo operators might want a 787 and when it makes financial sense to convert one. “So before those airplanes become interesting to convert to freighters,” he says, “I think we’re still looking far away.”

“For next year alone, we are actually looking, if the world stays geopolitically stable, at 7% capacity growth. And 2% of that is just because we will then be flying the amount of capacity that we didn’t fly this year because of the Gulf conflict.”
Marco Bloemen, Aevean

The article was originally published in the November 2026 issue of The STAT Trade Times.