Labour Day adds to tonnage declines from Asia Pacific: WorldACD

 Air cargo tonnages declined steeply last week from Asia Pacific, and specifically from China and Hong Kong to the U.S., ahead of the changes to de minimis rules on May 2.

May 1 Labour Day holidays and Japan’s Golden Week holidays also contributed significantly to WoW declines in worldwide flown cargo, according to the latest update from WorldACD Market Data.

"Worldwide air cargo tonnages dropped by three percent WoW in week 18 (April 28 to May 4). Cargo from Asia Pacific origins recorded by far the biggest WoW decrease of -11 percent with Central & South America (CSA) origin cargo recording a three percent drop, after spiking in recent weeks due to high Mother’s Day flower shipment volumes. Cargo from Africa and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) was flat with a small increase from North America and a seven percent rise from Europe origins, related to post-Easter recovery."

Worldwide average rates of $2.40 per kilo were broadly in line with the level of the previous two weeks, based on a full market average of spot rates and contract rates, the update added. "Average rates from Asia Pacific increased by three percent WoW but this was mainly the result of a mix effect – a steep drop (-26 percent) in (lower-yield) intra-Asia Pacific volumes and a smaller decrease in volumes of other origin Asia Pacific flows (-12 percent) at relatively high average rates (raising the proportion of higher-yield cargo). In fact, average rates for origin Asia Pacific flows, excluding intra-Asia Pacific volumes, decreased by one percent."

 Spot rates in week 18 averaging $2.56 per kilo worldwide were also flat WoW with increases from CSA (+11 percent WoW) and North America (up six percent) and declines from Asia Pacific and Europe (down three percent).

China-US vs China-Europe comparison
If we compare the falls in flown chargeable weight in week 18 from Asia Pacific to the U.S(-10 percent WoW) and China to the U.S.(-14 percent WoW) with those from Asia Pacific to Europe (down four percent) and China to Europe (down three percent), there seems to be a big difference in the relative performances of those markets. "This suggests that the changes in the China-U.S. (de minimis) rules are already having a significant effect."

On the pricing side, average weekly spot rates from China to the U.S. have been volatile in the last two months, ranging between $3.34 and $4.99 per kilo. They fell in week 18 for the fourth consecutive week, dropping a further nine percent to 3.85 per kilo. To Europe, spot rates from China have been more stable in the last two months, ranging between $3.87 per kilo and $4.29 per kilo, dipping by four percent in week 18 to $3.97 per kilo, the update added.