How is air freight weathering the post–de minimis storm?

Transpacific is, by far, the busiest trade lane for widebody freighters, and extraordinary disruptions have occurred on this route in May 2025.

“There are about 550 active widebody freighters in the world, and 200 of those are dedicated to the transpacific,” informs Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting at Rotate, an air cargo consultancy. Freighters dominate this route, providing around 80 percent of total air cargo capacity, leaving only 20 percent to belly space on passenger flights.

In the first week of May 2025, freighter capacity from Asia to North America dropped by 40 percent, which is equivalent to 4,000 tonnes a day.

“Airlines used to operate roughly 100 freighter flights a day on the transpacific, but that figure dropped by around 40 freighter flights a day in early May”, says van Leeuwen.

The reason?

On May 2, 2025, the U.S. ended the de minimis exemption for goods from China and Hong Kong, requiring full customs entry and tariffs on shipments under $800. In 2024, U.S. Customs processed about 4 million such shipments daily. Of over 1 billion shipments, 88% arrived by air, with around 60% coming from China and Hong Kong.

So what happened to those aircraft?

“We estimate that around 60 widebody freighters were dedicated to flying transpacific e-commerce demand, but with that demand disappearing, no trade lane in the world can absorb so many freighters. The transatlantic, as an example, only has 40 freighters operating in the first place. Some of them went into Latin America,” says van Leeuwen, “but they probably would have gone either way to cater for flower demand ahead of Mother’s Day (May 11).”

“The strategy by most airlines was to fly less, weather the storm and see what happened (with our data showing 50 freighters were temporarily taken out of service), and then go again,” he added.

Capacity and demand have rebounded following the initial 40% drop. “Currently, capacity is only 14 percent below the pre-de-minimis suspension level recorded in April."

“If e-commerce slows down, I would imagine some of the air cargo that moved to ocean may return to air.”
Marco Bloemen, Aevean

What is rebounding in the transpacific?
Marco Bloemen thinks it is front-loading. “A lot of transpacific air cargo is now front-loading because of the 90 days of tariff pause between China and the US,” argues Bloemen, the Managing Director of Aevean, the boutique aviation and logistics strategy consulting firm backed by Atlas Air Worldwide.

Aevean reported that widebody freighters usage has rebounded 22 percent till May 19, since the drop in capacity.

Meanwhile, he also reminds that not all commodities from China to the US are subject to a 30 percent tariff.

“There are still several high-tech commodities, phones and laptops, which are not subject to the tariff,” he added.

Earlier, Aevean also reported that low-value e-commerce represented 55 percent of China-US air trade volumes in 2024, “a staggering 1.2 million tonnes.”

Among all the Chinese imports to the US other than e-commerce, consumer tech dominates with 20 percent.

“That includes laptops, tablets, smartphones.”

It is followed by apparel, footwear, accessories, household, kitchenware, toys and sports equipment.

Bloemen addressed the misconception that air cargo volumes have simply declined recently. E-commerce demand surged so dramatically that a significant portion of air cargo capacity was allocated to meet this demand.

“It is because e-commerce was so popular and paying more that other commodities were taken out of the capacity footprint, and some of it shifted to ocean freight,” he said.

This includes fashion as well as high-tech commodities.

“If e-commerce slows down,” Bloemen says, “I would imagine some of the air cargo that moved to ocean may return to air.”

Is e-commerce shifting to the ocean?
Analysts tracking platform behaviour are also highlighting this shift in commodity mix and transport strategy. Judah Levine, Research Lead at Freightos, notes that major e-commerce players like Temu and Shein were already turning to ocean freight before the latest policy shocks.

“Even though it predates de minimis suspension and the second Trump administration, these developments have accelerated it. E-commerce platforms were viewing this as a temporary channel. But in the meantime, they were building up ocean capacity,” he added.

“In the US, much of the e-commerce cargo we bring in no longer stays in the country. Instead, it's transloaded to Latin America.”
Alexis Boutet, Flexport

Ready for a mid-June peak?
While Levine and Bloemen highlight shifts in transport modes, on-the-ground operators like Flexport are witnessing real-time impacts on rates and booking patterns. Alexis Boutet, who is the Vice President and Global Head of Airfreight at Flexport, leads these efforts at the US freight forwarding company.

Boutet noted that Flexport started the year with yields above the seasonal norm at $5 per kilo on transpacific but saw a significant drop in market prices after Liberation Day and de minimis removal into the United States.

“After a short spike from April 5 to April 9, our regular customer has experienced a decrease in bookings of about 15 to 30 percent in April 2025. The de minimis removal on May 2nd accelerated the demand and rate decline, and we reached a low point of around $3 per kg in early May 2025 on China to US lane. However, rates are now beginning to recover.”

Boutet reports that they expect it will peak around mid-June. Because, on the ocean, goods have to depart Asia before mid-July to beat the August 12 deadline to be in the United States, and it currently takes around 4 weeks to get a sailing for a new ocean booking.

“If you don't make your booking before mid-June on the ocean, you are going to be too late. So mid-June to the beginning of August, I would expect the air freight market to pick up, unless we have another regulatory change, of course”

Flexport operates three Boeing 747-400 freighters contracted through Atlas Air and deployed on transpacific.

Meanwhile, Boutet notes a recent shift started at the end of April and has gained momentum through May.

“In the US, much of the e-commerce cargo we bring in no longer stays in the country. Instead, it's transloaded to Latin America.”

“Only about one-third of our e-commerce shipments terminate in the US; the remaining two-thirds are transloaded to countries like Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and others across Latin America.”

He noted that the big e-commerce players have aggressively expanded their marketing efforts into Latin America.

“While purchasing power differs, expanding into those markets can help offset the drop in US demand,” he said.

“They’re going to be using ocean freight to come into the United States, do a formal clearance, and then stock US-based warehouses.”
Brandon Fried, Airforwarders Association (AfA)

How easy is it to shift sourcing away from China?
Amid shifting trade flows and evolving e-commerce strategies, industry advocates like Brandon Fried, Executive Director of the Airforwarders Association (AfA), are urging caution as long-term clarity remains elusive.

“Right now, the freighters are starting to fill again,” Fried said, referencing a slight uptick in demand following a temporary reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods. “There’ll be some front-loading once again of inventory into US warehousing facilities.”

This resurgence follows a period where half of ocean sailings were cancelled, and both buyers and manufacturers hesitated amid a 145 percent tariff threat. With the rate now reduced to 30 percent, activity has cautiously resumed, but Fried warns that the environment remains highly unstable.

“Businesses don’t do well in an uncertain environment.”

“For the time being, out of China, de minimis is over,” Fried stated. “That was really a significant load driver on those planes.”

As a result, e-commerce firms are pivoting to ocean freight. “They’re going to be using ocean freight to come into the United States, do a formal clearance, and then stock US-based warehouses,” Fried explained. “That will, by its very nature, probably reduce air cargo demand for those freighters in the long term.”

In the face of ongoing tariff volatility, some forwarders are preparing to shift sourcing away from China. “A lot of customers are starting to look to other areas of sourcing—India, Southeast Asia,” Fried said. “But China has had 40 to 50 years to build a significant manufacturing base. That’s not going to shift overnight.”

While the short-term 30 percent tariff offers a brief reprieve, it is hardly sustainable. “The main concern is 30 percent ending and then jumping right back up to 145 percent,” Fried said. “They don’t want to take a gamble of waiting, so they’re going to make buying decisions based on that 30 percent tariff, and they’ll just pay it.”

With the August 12 tariff deadline looming, Fried also predicts a surge in freighter demand near the end of the 90-day reprieve. But he cautions, “That will be short-lived. If we go back to the way it was, then those freighters will quickly lose cargo.”

“No trade lane in the world can absorb 50 freighters. The transatlantic, as an example, only has 40 freighters operating in the first place.”
Tim van Leeuwen, Rotate

Airlines to stay in transpacific?
Despite the uncertainty, some industry leaders remain optimistic about transpacific operations. van Leeuwen notes that airlines are likely to maintain service on the lane, as yields remain “quite decent.”

“Our expectation would be that airlines will return to this transpacific as much as they can, to the point that there is demand. If today's capacity is 14 percent below where we were in April, I wouldn't expect that number to go down significantly. In fact, we would expect it to continue to creep up, unless after 90 days of pause, the tariffs become effective again, and then we're back to square one.”

Whilst the US and China's trade deal has eased trade tariff worries in the short term, the obvious risk remains what will happen once the current pause in tariffs ends. A full rebound of e-commerce volumes is unlikely, even after tariffs were lowered.

Shifting freighters to Southeast Asia?
This shifting landscape isn't just affecting demand, it’s also reshaping supply chains. As production gradually moves out of China toward Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, airlines and freight forwarders are adapting their strategies to align with these emerging manufacturing hubs.

“We’ve seen a clear trend of production line transfers from China to Southeast Asia,” said Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales & Marketing at Taiwan-based Dimerco Express. “In the past, those areas didn’t have much freighter support, but they represent future growth opportunities.”

Liu warned that, in the near term, the limited freighter infrastructure in these emerging hubs could lead to capacity shortages during peak shipping seasons.

“We will see capacity shortages during peak season out of Southeast Asian countries, which will drive up rates for the transpacific trade,” she explained.

However, she cautioned that the longer-term outlook remains uncertain.

“There are still a lot of uncertainties,” Liu said. “And the global economy isn’t looking strong, so overall buying power will be lower than in previous years.”

The article was originally published in the June 2025 issue of The STAT Trade Times.