Global air freight tightens as peak-season demand rises in December

Global air freight markets entered December with tightening capacity, rising rates and strong peak-season movements across major trade lanes, as Dimerco’s latest Asia Pacific Freight Report shows demand accelerating in multiple regions. The strongest pressure comes from Transpacific lanes, where e-commerce volumes from Asia to the United States surged from mid-November after Black Friday and Thanksgiving promotions, filling key transit hubs and driving continued rate increases.

Dimerco notes that Southeast Asia remains a major driver of global air freight activity, with significant volumes feeding through hubs such as Taipei, Hong Kong, Incheon, Narita and Singapore. Movements within Asia also remain active, particularly between China, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia as raw materials circulate to support regional production. Airlines are already signalling that 2026 BSA rates could stay close to current levels, even though many expect the wider market to soften next year.

Across Northeast Asia, air export demand from China, Taiwan and South Korea to the United States and Europe is high and continues to lift rates as the month begins. Space on intra-Asia routes is tightening, especially to Singapore and Taipei, as carriers shift capacity towards long-haul destinations. In North China, shipments to the United States face slower transit times due to higher cargo volumes and ground-handling delays, while Taiwan reports rising fuel surcharges and sustained demand to key Asian gateways.

South Korea is experiencing rising demand to the United States and Asia driven by the peak season and increasing movements of semiconductor equipment and other technology cargo. Bookings to the United States need at least one week of advance planning, and capacity on key Asian lanes is tightening as equipment-related exports grow.

South China and Hong Kong continue to feel the seasonal pressure, with strong demand on routes to Taipei, Singapore and Bangkok. Rates are rising and expected to remain elevated until mid-December before easing towards the end of the month. Air Hong Kong has added charter flights to Taipei in November and early December, while Hong Kong also reports sustained increases in US-bound cargo as holiday-season requirements build.

Southeast Asia shows clear signs of strain as the year closes. Vietnam expects tight capacity before Christmas and New Year, with shippers advised to book several days in advance. In the Philippines, standard rates no longer secure space and express pricing is often needed, especially for the United States. Singapore is also seeing shippers move quarter-end volumes ahead of the holiday period, which is tightening capacity further and driving rate increases. Indonesia anticipates rising rates and limited space across both long-haul and intra-Asia routes as the season peaks.

India’s air export activity remains strong, particularly for electronics, garments and e-commerce. Capacity to the United States is tight as large volumes are routed through Europe, limiting available space. Winter fog and congestion at major hubs may add pressure, with limited capacity growth expected due to few new freighters and restricted belly space from passenger operations.

Australia also reports tight air capacity from Asia, with rates hovering around pre-pandemic levels. Across North America, capacity into major Asian hubs is tightening, particularly Singapore, as high-tech manufacturers increase shipments of finished goods. Some terminals in Chicago are facing congestion linked to ICE activities, and new routes such as Phoenix–Taipei may initially operate with low payloads.

Canada’s air freight market is stable, with no major capacity concerns in December even as the number of direct flights to Asia has slightly decreased. Mexico, however, is experiencing discussions around airport policy that have already caused some friction with the United States and triggered flight cancellations, resulting in uncertainty for international cargo routing through the country.

Dimerco highlights several factors to watch globally, including the grounding of MD-11F aircraft, which has reduced long-haul capacity for e-commerce and express traffic and forced carriers to reallocate aircraft. Weather-related disruptions in Asia and security unrest in Mexico have also added uncertainty to cargo movements.

As December progresses, the air freight market remains shaped by strong seasonal demand, tight capacity across many regions, and operational challenges that continue to influence global supply chains.