Central Asia cargo growth puts aviation insurance under scrutiny

Central Asia's growing aviation and cargo activity is changing the risk profile that insurers have to assess, with more aircraft, international routes and higher-value assets increasing exposure for airlines in the region, according to Andrey Kavun, Managing Director of Malakut Insurance Brokers.

“Growth is opportunity but growth is new risk exposure,” Kavun told The STAT Trade Times on the sidelines of the Central Asia Air Cargo Summit 2026 in Tashkent.

Malakut Insurance Brokers, established in 1999 and headquartered in Dubai, is an independent insurance and reinsurance broker specialising in complex risks. Aviation is one of its core areas, providing hull and liability, war risk, and airport and ground-handler liability insurance to airlines, cargo operators, airports, lessors and other aviation businesses. The company has more than 25 years of experience in aviation insurance and operates through a global network.

Kavun said Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are both developing their aviation and cargo infrastructure, creating opportunities for airlines and airports but also requiring closer engagement between operators, brokers and underwriters.

The scale of that growth is reflected in cargo volumes. Airports in Uzbekistan handled 98,137 tonnes of cargo and mail in 2025, according to Uzbekistan Airports data. Kazakhstan's airports handled 173,300 tonnes of cargo in 2025, up from 170,900 tonnes in 2024, according to Kazakhstan's Civil Aviation Administration.

Malakut's presentation at the Tashkent summit also highlighted these figures, showing Uzbekistan's 2025 airport cargo and mail volume at about 98,000 tonnes, up 12% year on year, and Kazakhstan's cargo volume at about 173,000 tonnes, up 1.4%.

For insurers, Kavun said this growth means that an airline's exposure cannot be assessed in isolation from its expansion plans.

“Routes change, aircraft number change, higher values of these aircraft, more international routes,” he said. “New risk exposure means that the underwriters and insurers need to assess the risk from a different point of view.”

Kazakhstan is already positioning aviation as part of its wider logistics and transit strategy. The country's government says it is modernising runways to accommodate heavy aircraft, has introduced duty-free imports for cargo aircraft and approved a five-year plan for development of the cargo segment.

Uzbekistan is also seeing a sharp increase in air cargo activity. Official statistics show air cargo volume reached 255,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, compared with 103,300 tonnes in the first half of 2025, although the statistical methodology was adjusted from 2025.

Insurance market remains soft, but pressure is building
The expansion comes as the global aviation insurance market is dealing with a heavier loss environment.

Kavun said the market remains soft, meaning capacity is still available, but pressure is already building following a loss-making 2025 and continued geopolitical conflicts.

His assessment is consistent with wider aviation insurance market commentary. Marsh's latest aviation insurance review says 2025 hull, spares and liability losses increased insurers' loss expectations and raised concerns over rating adequacy. While overall capacity remains stable, insurers are deploying it more selectively, particularly for higher-value fleets, challenging operating profiles and airlines with recent losses. Marsh is a global insurance broker and risk adviser that provides insurance and risk management solutions to businesses across industries, including aviation.

The Malakut presentation puts 2025 airline hull and liability losses at about $3.2 billion, describing the year as an abnormal loss year. The figure is broadly in line with market assessments that put total 2025 airline insurance claims, including attritional losses, at close to $3 billion.

Kavun said Central Asian operators therefore need to maintain closer relationships with the insurance market rather than approaching insurance only when a renewal or new route is imminent.

Geopolitics is adding another layer
The challenge becomes more complicated when airlines operate routes exposed to geopolitical risks.

Kavun said the recent Middle East conflict has resulted in deeper risk assessments by underwriters. While the insurance market is trying to respond, this can take longer than the pace at which airlines need to make operational decisions.

He expects more flexible insurance models to emerge as airlines increasingly operate in a more volatile geopolitical environment.

The broader aviation industry has already felt the financial impact of the Middle East disruption. IATA's June 2026 outlook cut its global airline net profit forecast to $23 billion from an earlier $41 billion estimate, while its projected industry fuel bill increased from $252 billion in 2025 to $350 billion in 2026, largely because of the energy shock linked to the conflict.

For insurers, the issue is not limited to premiums. Kavun said airlines opening new routes through politically sensitive airspace need to provide comprehensive underwriting information before cover can be assessed.

Underwriters look at factors including the size of the airline, its fleet and its safety management system, he said. A larger fleet can give insurers more flexibility in their assessment, while a new route requires the airline to provide the market with enough information to understand the exposure.

Sanctions add another layer to the process. Kavun said insurance matters involving sanctions have to pass through compliance procedures, which can slow decisions for airlines when the operational environment is changing quickly.

Building insurability before the market tightens
Kavun's message to Central Asian operators is therefore less about finding the cheapest insurance and more about building relationships before capacity becomes difficult.

“Local operators need to be more close to the market,” he said, adding that they need to understand where capacity comes from, who the underwriters are and build those relationships before difficult situations arise.

He also cautioned airlines against putting excessive pressure on underwriters when the market becomes difficult, arguing that protecting credibility today can give operators more choices in the future.

Insurance is renewed every 12 months. Insurability is built over years.
Andrey Kavun, Malakut Insurance Brokers

 That approach is becoming more relevant as insurers increasingly look beyond an airline's immediate renewal. Marsh says underwriters are assessing profitability over three-, five- and even 10-year periods as they respond to higher claims costs and changing exposure profiles.

For airlines, insurance remains a relatively small line item. Kavun said it accounts for less than 1% of an airline's P&L in many cases and can be below 0.5%. But he argued that its relatively small cost should not lead operators to underestimate its strategic importance.

The central question, he said, is not simply how much an airline will pay at its next renewal, but whether it will remain insurable as its network, fleet and exposure evolve.