Air cargo volumes bounce back after New Year slowdown: WorldACD

Global air cargo tonnages have bounced back in the second week of 2024 following their typical slowdown in the second half of December and the first week of January, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.

The increase includes double-digit percentage increases in demand to Europe from Asia Pacific and from Middle East & South Asia that may reflect some modal shift to air due to disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, the update added.

Weekly analysis
Preliminary figures for week 2 (January 8-14) indicate that global air cargo tonnages rose 24 percent compared with the previous week, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, after falling by around 30 percent in the second half of last month and by around three percent in week 1.

Average worldwide rates dropped again slightly in week 2 after falling by around two percent in the first week of 2024.

"These patterns are broadly similar to those of previous years although the 24 percent tonnage rebound in week 2 was stronger than in the equivalent week last year (+19 percent)."

Combined tonnages for weeks 1 and 2 this year were down seven percent globally compared with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), and average yields declined three percent and capacity down three percent – "familiar patterns for this time of year."

There were 2Wo2W tonnage declines from most of the main origin regions including Europe (15 percent), Central & South America (nine percent) and Asia Pacific (seven percent).

"There have been anecdotal reports in recent days of cargo owners switching some cargo from sea to air because of longer ocean voyages caused by the disruptions in the Red Sea. Although it’s unclear yet to what extent this has contributed to air cargo demand, those elevated tonnage figures to Europe from Asia Pacific and from Middle East & South Asia likely reflect some contribution from modal shift on these lanes from sea to air and to sea-air."

Rates to Europe from Asia Pacific and from Middle East & South Asia were down six percent and two percent, respectively, on a 2Wo2W basis.

Year-on-year perspective
Year on year (YoY), demand remains up slightly (two percent) globally. Continuing a positive trend ex-Asia Pacific observed in the final quarter of 2023, demand in the first two weeks of this year is up six percent despite the Lunar New Year (LNY) in 2024 coming later (10 February) than last year (22 January)."

On the pricing side, worldwide average rates are currently 24 percent below their levels this time last year at an average of $2.34 per kilo in week 2 although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (31 percent compared to January 2019).