Air cargo capacity tight across Asia, Europe and North America

Air freight capacity is under pressure in October due to peak-season demand, typhoon disruptions, rail delays, trade policy changes, and regional events, Dimerco Express Group noted in its October 2025 Asia-Pacific Freight Market Report.

Southeast Asian exports of semiconductors, AI products, and electronics are driving demand, while China–Europe rail disruptions and Golden Week factory closures are constraining shipments. Companies are advised to plan early and diversify logistics strategies to manage delays, higher rates, and potential shortages. 

Super Typhoon Ragasa caused flight cancellations across the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong on September 23–24, creating backlogs at key transit hubs. 

“September to November is always the peak season for air freight. This year, demand growth is more focused on Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore,” said Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group. “With high-tech, AI, and semiconductor production increasing in these countries, more finished goods are being shipped out. As a result, we expect capacity pressure at major transit hubs, including Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Korea.”

Global manufacturing showed signs of recovery in August, with the PMI rising to 50.9, indicating expansion for the first time since June 2024. Output, new orders, and employment increased, particularly in consumer and investment goods, though overall trade flows remain weak and business confidence is still below average.

Air freight demand in Taiwan is stable, supported by AI and high-tech shipments, though traditional industries have slowed due to tariffs. Rates from Taipei to the US remain high, while capacity to Penang, Hanoi, and Jakarta is tight. South Korea sees a modest upward trend, with limited space to Singapore and Penang due to machinery and electronics shipments.

North China expects higher demand from Europe as cargo shifts from rail due to Belarus border closures. In East China, capacity to Southeast Asia is tight with occasional flight cancellations due to resource allocations for Apple’s product launch. South China faces higher rates to the US as Amazon Prime Day drives demand, and European routes see load restrictions. Hong Kong’s capacity remains tight to Singapore and Vietnam.

In Southeast Asia, Thailand and Vietnam face tight air freight markets due to e-commerce and peak-season shipments, while Malaysia and the Philippines may experience disruptions from holidays and weather.

Singapore expects a quarter-end backlog rolling from September into October. Indonesia’s rates and capacity will depend on demand during China’s Golden Week(Oct 1-8, 2025). Australia maintains stable air freight capacity, with minor disruptions from Golden Week and local holidays.

North America sees tight air freight from the US West Coast to Southeast Asia and India, while southbound flows to South America face capacity constraints. Central US routes are under pressure as cargo shifts from ocean to air. In Mexico, Avianca Cargo is expanding services from Felipe Ángeles Airport to the US West Coast, supporting perishable exports.

Europe faces heightened risks due to drone activity in Poland and the Baltic states, potentially causing delays, cancellations, and higher fares. Trans-Pacific lanes are under pressure from demurrage costs and shifting order volumes, while AI exports from Northeast Asia continues to grow.

US trade policies, including International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariff reviews and transshipment scrutiny, are influencing logistics decisions, with companies advised to prepare evidence packs to comply with regulations.

Dimerco stated that they expect a combination of Golden Week closures, weather disruptions, Southeast Asian export growth, and trade policy developments to create congestion and higher air freight rates. Shippers and logistics providers are urged to plan early to manage lead times, avoid supply shortages, and reduce costs.