Tonnage growth eases in January ahead of early Lunar New Year

Worldwide air cargo recorded a two percent year-on-year (YoY) tonnage increase in January, well below the +11 percent average growth last year, facing tougher comparison figures, moderating e-commerce volumes and an earlier-than-last-year slowdown ahead of Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays in East Asia.

Total worldwide tonnages dropped by -12 percent in week 5 (January 27 to February 2), week on week (WoW), after rebounding in the previous three weeks, according to the latest update from WorldACD Market Data.

"The WoW drop was entirely due to a -33 percent decline in chargeable weight flown from Asia Pacific origins because of the annual two-week closure of most factories in China and some other East Asian countries due to LNY. LNY this year took place on January 29 whereas last year it was on February 10, adding complexity to YoY comparisons with January 2024."

The drop in tonnages from Asia Pacific was partially offset by increases from Central & South America (+16 percent) and Africa (+11 percent) – boosted by higher flower volumes ahead of Valentine’s Day on February 14 - and a four percent increase from North America origins, the update added.

Overall full-market average global rates for January of $2.44 per kilo were up YoY by seven percent, thanks to YoY increases from MESA (+33 percent), Asia Pacific (+10 percent) and Africa (+10 percent) origin markets. Average worldwide spot rates of $2.67 per kilo was up +17 percent YoY while contract rates were up just two percent YoY to $2.39 per kilo.

China to US outlook remains unclear
The suspension of China’s access to the USA’s ‘section 321’ customs-free de minimis entry process looks set to have a significant impact on the China-US e-commerce market. The impact on air cargo is unlikely to be clearly visible, in data terms, until at least next week, although the extent is likely to be masked for several weeks by the effects of LNY, the update added.