Tariffs and shifting supply chains reshape global air cargo flows

The global air cargo market is entering a period of adjustment as trade policy changes and manufacturing shifts reshape freight flows across key lanes. Industry analysis shows that uncertainty around tariffs and sourcing strategies could alter global air cargo flows during 2026.

According to the March 2026 Asia Pacific freight report by Dimerco, the air freight market remained soft before and during the Chinese New Year period compared with previous years, with freight rates trending on the lower side.

A major factor shaping the market outlook is the ruling by the US Supreme Court on tariff measures and the introduction of a temporary 10 per cent global tariff for a period of 150 days. Early signals during the holiday period showed China-based shippers preparing production plans for the US market.

Trade policy uncertainty continues to shape planning for shippers and logistics providers. The report notes that measures under US tariff authorities such as Section 122 allow temporary import surcharges to address trade imbalances, adding further uncertainty for exporters and supply chain planners. Despite recent rulings affecting certain IEEPA tariffs, importers are being advised to maintain detailed supply chain documentation and prepare for potential new tariff measures as regulatory scrutiny and enforcement remain elevated, according to Daniel Lee, Senior Manager for Trade Compliance at Dimerco Express Group.

The report notes that this development could redirect flows of high-value cargo such as high-tech products, semiconductors and automotive components back toward China for exports to the United States in 2026. If this trend accelerates, it could reduce reliance on production hubs in Southeast Asia that gained momentum during the China plus one manufacturing shift.

Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said tariff developments may reshape regional air cargo patterns.

“Tariff uncertainty is likely to reshape the intra-Asia market. Since 2025, regional volumes have been supported by raw material movements linked to China+1 manufacturing strategies, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. If tariff treatment becomes uniform across countries, shippers may shift back to exporting directly from China instead of routing materials through Southeast Asia. This could lead to softer intra-Asia traffic compared with 2025.”

In Northeast Asia, the market has already started to show signs of tightening capacity on selected routes. After the Lunar New Year holiday, urgent shipments of electronics, AI servers and semiconductor equipment released into the market have placed pressure on available capacity from Taiwan to the United States.

Exports from South Korea are also expected to tighten as cargo flows normalise following the holiday period. Demand from regional manufacturing clusters is increasing, particularly toward Southeast Asian hubs where electronics supply chains are concentrated.

Air cargo demand across other parts of the Asia Pacific region is also showing signs of tightening. In India, export activity is expected to increase toward the end of March as companies accelerate shipments before the close of the fiscal year. Logistics providers note that this year-end push could lift air freight volumes on major international lanes. At the same time, ongoing disruptions in the Middle East may affect airspace stability, potentially tightening capacity on routes connecting India with the United States and Europe. Forwarders are advising exporters to secure bookings at least two weeks in advance toward the end of the month to avoid delays linked to the fiscal year export rush.

In Australia, air cargo demand continues to grow, driven by trade flows within the Asia Pacific region. Passenger belly capacity is gradually recovering as international travel resumes, but freighter space remains constrained, keeping market conditions tight. Spot rates are expected to remain elevated as demand continues to outpace available freighter capacity, prompting logistics providers to recommend pre-booking shipments at least five days prior to departure to secure uplift.

Global air cargo demand is also influenced by broader manufacturing conditions. The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose from 50.4 to 52.4 at the start of 2026, signalling expansion in industrial output and new orders. However, business confidence remains cautious, suggesting trade flows may recover gradually rather than sharply.

Operational disruptions are also affecting the air cargo network in several regions. Severe winter weather across parts of Europe has led to temporary runway closures, slower ground handling and flight cancellations at some major hubs. These disruptions have reduced schedule reliability and could impact cargo connectivity between Europe and Asia.