Scheduled freighter flights continue to be cancelled: Dimerco

Air freight demand from China to the U.S. and EU remains weak, with no signs of recovery in e-commerce volumes. "As a result, scheduled freighter flights continue to be cancelled," says the latest report from Dimerco.

"In contrast, demand out of Southeast Asia, particularly from Thailand and Vietnam, is starting to pick up due to the upcoming tariff deadline in July. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East may affect routes between Asia and Europe. Airlines are expected to reduce flight frequencies in response to potential disruptions in capacity and routing."

Kathy Liu, VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group says: "Intra-Asia traffic is holding strong, especially on routes linking China with Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Capacity on these lanes is tight, and we're seeing higher rates compared to the same period last year."

Regional market highlights

Taiwan: As the export demand for artificial intelligence and high-tech products is rising due to the upcoming expiration of the 90-day tariff pause, capacity is expected to be tight, especially on the routes to Dallas, Chicago and Los Angeles.

"From Taipei to the U.S., the air freight rates start increasing. Although the shipping demand to India remains stable, the capacity to Chennai and Mumbai is still tight, suggesting early booking for urgent shipments."

The fuel surcharge adjustment of TWD 28/kg for TC I and II and TWD 10/kg for TC III went into effect on June 16, the update added.

North China: Asiana Air has reduced Tianjin-Incheon services to two flights per week starting in June while Japan Airlines has resumed Tianjin-Narita operations with four weekly flights operating from Wednesday to Saturday.

"Overall cargo volume declined in June, with a more pronounced decrease in the European market. During the summer season, high temperatures may lead airlines to temporarily offload shipments, resulting in reduced cargo capacity."

East China: Capacity to Vietnam has increased as more freighters have been deployed while capacity to Thailand remains tight.

"Air China has added a weekly direct freighter service from Shanghai to Hanoi, operated by a B747 departing on Tuesdays. Delta Air has resumed its Shanghai-Los Angeles service using an A350-900 passenger aircraft, operating on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays.

"The U.S.-bound market remains sluggish due to weak demand from e-commerce and e-cigarette exporters."

South China: Although Temu’s fully managed model is recovering, market demand remains weak, says the update.

"Polar Air has cancelled its freighter service from Guangzhou to Cincinnati starting in June. Whether service will resume in July depends on market demand. For dual-use goods exports, delays may occur due to stricter customs clearance procedures."

Hong Kong: Long-haul rates are falling and are expected to remain steady at the current level unless there is a shift in tariff policy. Demand for Asia remains strong, with capacity currently tight.

South Korea: "Market conditions have remained steady since May. U.S.-bound export volumes declined slightly, leading to stable space demand compared to last month.

Bookings to the U.S. should be made at least two weeks in advance due to high demand. From Incheon, the Asia (SIN) area lane is seeing the same status as last month. Due to market conditions, the fuel surcharge will slightly decrease from June 16 to July 15."

Vietnam: Air freight capacity and rates remain stable, the update added. "However, the 90-day suspension of the 46 percent U.S. tariff on Vietnamese exports is set to expire on July 9 unless a new agreement is reached. As a result, airfreight rates may rise in early July.

"While rates are currently steady, they remain subject to change depending on space availability. Regular monitoring is recommended."

India: Tensions in the Middle East may affect capacity and rates for shipments between E.U. and U.S, the update added.

"Disruptions to global shipping routes are posing challenges for India’s export sector and may contribute to increased air freight rates. For shipments destined to areas impacted by the monsoon season, shrink wrapping is recommended. Note that consignees must secure the required extended producer responsibility (EPR) certification for plastic shrink wrapping as mandated by Indian Customs."

Los Angeles: Perishable cargo outbound is being rerouted to San Francisco and Seattle as freighters shift operations to handle increased volumes of fresh fruit, the update added.

"The peak travel season continues to limit available capacity on passenger services. India remains a hot market amid a manufacturing boom, with space expected to tighten. Outbound demand from Asia is likely to rise ahead of the July and August tariff adjustment."

Dallas: Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) is undergoing major cargo expansion projects. While long-term capacity will improve, ongoing construction may temporarily limit ramp access and handling efficiency in July. Belly-hold space remains limited, the update added.

"As one of the key air freight hubs in the U.S., DFW is under pressure as global demand is set to rise 6–10 percent in 2025, outpacing capacity growth.

"July marks the early stages of the North American retail and e-commerce peak season. Shippers are ramping up volumes, particularly toward Asia, with a growing shift from ocean to air. Ongoing congestion and reliability issues in ocean freight are driving more urgent, high-value, or time-sensitive shipments to air.

"July also signals the beginning of back-to-school and fall retail shipping. Both air and ground networks around DFW may face higher volumes and tighter capacity.

"Air freight space, especially to Asia, is expected to remain tight, with possible booking delays or rollovers. It is recommended to pre-book at least 5-7 days in advance for high-volume or time-sensitive cargo."

Mexico: Cainiao’s new distribution center in Mexico has shortened delivery times from China to just 12 days. This improvement in efficiency is driving demand for Chinese goods and creating new trade and cargo opportunities between the two countries, the update added.

"Global airlines (such as Delta, United and Lufthansa) have canceled flights from Mexico to Tel Aviv (TLV) due to airspace closures resulting from heightened tensions in the Middle East."

What to watch
China-U.S. cargo volumes have declined by as much as 60 percent, with e-commerce bookings down approximately 50 percent in May and June, says the update. "The end of the de minimis exemption for imports from China and Hong Kong on May 2 has further contributed to the drop in volume, resulting in excess air freight capacity on this lane.

"A recent U.S. court ruling challenged the legal basis of certain tariffs, boosting sentiment briefly. However, a stay was granted. The 90-day tariff pause ends on July 9, creating major uncertainty in demand forecasts."