Golden Week pushes down early October tonnages: WorldACD

Worldwide average rates are currently down 29% YoY at $2.31/kg

Golden Week pushes down early October tonnages: WorldACD
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Global air cargo tonnages dropped significantly in the first full week of October compared with the previous week, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.

The decline was mainly caused by the seasonal effect of China’s National Day Golden Week holiday from September 29 to October 6, according to the latest update.

Figures for week 40 (October 2-8) show a five percent drop in tonnages compared with the previous week while rates declined three percent based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

The week-on-week (WoW) drop in tonnages was less pronounced than during the equivalent week last year when a change of (-) nine percent was recorded. "That - nine percent WoW decline last year was skewed by a 47 percent drop in outbound tonnages from China compared with a more-modest -21 percent WoW decline this year during the holiday shutdown. The situation this time last year in China was complicated due to various regions of the country going in and out of zero-Covid lockdowns."

Comparing weeks 39 and 40 this year with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages decreased two percent versus their combined total in weeks 37 and 38 while worldwide rates went up two percent and capacity slightly decreased marginally.

At a regional level, decreases in tonnages (2Wo2W) were recorded most strongly on flows inbound to Asia Pacific from, respectively, Middle East & South Asia (- nine percent) and Europe (- eight percent) and intra-Asia Pacific (- eight percent), due to the impact of the Golden Week in China. "Elsewhere, tonnages ex-Middle East & South Asia to Europe were down on a 2Wo2W basis while notable increases were recorded ex-Africa to Europe (up eight percent), between North America and Central & South America (up five percent in both directions) and ex-Europe to Middle East & South Asia (up four percent)."

On the pricing side, average global rates increased two percent on a 2Wo2W basis with the most notable rises ex-Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific (+16 percent) and ex-Asia Pacific to Middle East & South Asia (up seven percent).

Year-on-Year perspective
Chargeable weight in weeks 39 and 40 was down marginally compared with the equivalent period last year with the most notable change on an origin region level being a nine percent rise ex-Asia Pacific. There were decreases in tonnages ex-North America (-13 percent) and ex-Europe (down nine percent).

Overall capacity has increased 10 percent compared with last year as passenger air services continue to return to the market. Worldwide average rates are currently 29 percent below their levels this time last year at an average of $2.31 per kilo in week 40 although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (+31 percent compared to October 2019).

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