Festivals cause mid-Sept dip in air cargo tonnages from Asia Pacific
Increases make Bangladesh to USA spot rates ($7.83/kg for week 38) among highest of any air cargo market in the world.
Global air cargo tonnages dipped by around three percent in week 38 (September 16-22), week on week (WoW), with the declines caused mainly by national holidays in China, South Korea and Chile, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data.
The fall in flown chargeable weight was mainly driven by Asia Pacific origins, from where a six percent WoW decline in tonnages was responsible for almost three quarters (73 percent) of the overall global decrease. "This Asia Pacific drop was mainly due to the seasonal effects of mid-autumn or harvest festival holidays in various parts of East Asia – taking place this year from September 16-18," the update added.
The majority (80 percent) of the drop in Asia Pacific tonnages is explained by a temporary dip in volumes from South Korea (-33 percent WoW) and China (-six percent WoW). "Last year, the mid-autumn festival holidays took place in week 39 (September 28-30), thus skewing the year-on-year (YoY) comparisons. Worldwide tonnages in week 38 this year were just six percent higher than in week 38 last year compared with double-digit percentage YoY increases throughout most of 2024."
Rates remain high
The interpretation that the tonnage decline in week 38 is a seasonal blip rather than an overall weakening of the market is further supported by the continuing strong, and in some cases increasing, rates trends, mainly driven by Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origin regions, thanks to the ongoing e-commerce boom and continued (and increasing) tensions in the Middle East region, the update added.
"Average global rates in week 38 were flat with increasing rates ex-Africa (+ four percent), Asia Pacific (+ one percent) and MESA (+ four percent), offset by slightly negative rate trends for the other main origin regions. Average rates, ex-Asia Pacific ($3.42 per kilo, +22 percent YoY) and ex-MESA ($2.94, +62 percent YoY) are reaching record highs for this year, and are even higher than the peak of Q42023 when average rates in December, ex-Asia Pacific, stood at $3.33 per kilo."
Bangladesh challenges continue
Bangladesh continues to face additional challenges, resulting from ongoing political instability and logistics disruptions, the update added.
"As a result, spot rates, ex-Bangladesh keep on increasing, reaching new highs in week 38 of $7.83 per kilo to the USA (+ four percent, WoW) – more than three times their levels this time last year (+213 percent) – and $5.45 per kilo to Europe (+ seven percent WoW, +175 percent YoY). These further increases make Bangladesh to USA spot rates among the highest of any air cargo market in the world."
Continuing disruptions, including to airport cargo security screening capabilities in Dhaka, look set to place further upward pressure on spot rates from Bangladesh.
