Boeing projects 2,845 new cargo aircraft will be needed by 2043

Boeing has projected that 2,845 new cargo aircraft will be needed by 2043, and estimates that the global freighter fleet in 2043 will reach 3,900 aircraft, up from 2,340 today.

Interestingly, while Boeing has increased its forecast, Airbus in its latest forecast sees lower demand for freighters.

Boeing, in its new Commercial Market Outlook 2024-2043, has mentioned that airlines will need 43,975 new airplanes over 20 years.

E-commerce shipping platforms account for more than 11,000 tonnes of goods moved by air each day, the equivalent capacity of 100 777 freighters, Boeing said.

Boeing also estimates that there will be a 4.1 percent compound annual growth in cargo traffic.

There is likely to be a 77 percent increase in the global large widebody freighter fleet over the next 20 years. It also says that there will be 2.6 percent average annual growth rate of the freighter fleet through 2043.

Boeing says the projected increase will be fueled by global trade growth and a rise in e-commerce. Cargo tonne-kilometres are expected to more than double from current levels. The demand for large widebody freighters will be driven by robust international e-commerce demand and supply chain restructuring.

Boeing anticipates that 35 percent of the additional freighters will be new deliveries while the remaining 65% will be converted aircraft. Among the new builds, 660 (23 percent) will be large widebody freighters and 345 (12 percent) will be medium widebody freighters. For conversions, 150 (five percent) will be large widebody, 440 (15 percent) will be medium widebody, and 1,250 (44 percent) will be standard body freighters.

By geographic area, carriers in the Americas will lead the growth with a requirement for 1,115 freighters over the next 20 years, followed closely by the Asia-Pacific region needing 980 freighters, and the Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa with a combined demand for 750 freighters.