Air cargo stays resilient in 2025, Freightos outlook sees steady 2026

The air cargo market in 2025 showed real strength even though many global trade conditions were difficult. Early in the year, expectations were that air cargo volumes would grow by more than five per cent, according to forecasts at the end of 2024. However, when the United States introduced new tariffs in April and then suspended the de minimis exemption for Chinese exports in May, analysts expected much slower growth for the rest of the year. The de minimis exemption had allowed many low-value, business-to-consumer e-commerce shipments from China to travel by air without high costs. With that rule removed, many experts thought that air freight would slow sharply later in the year.

Transpacific air volumes recover after early decline
Despite these policy changes, the air cargo market proved resilient through 2025. Although imports by air from China to the United States dropped sharply month on month when the de minimis exception ended, demand did not stay weak. By July, volumes on the transpacific routes returned to roughly the same levels seen in 2024. This rebound happened because e-commerce platforms adapted quickly to the new rules, and because general cargo shipments continued to grow. In particular, manufacturing hubs like Vietnam saw strong increases in electronics exports, helping to push air freight volumes back up.

Strong growth on Asia–Europe and intra-Asia routes
While the transpacific lane did not show year-on-year growth in the second half of 2025, other key routes performed well. Air cargo lanes between Asia and Europe, and within the Asia region itself, saw substantial increases throughout the year. Exports from China to markets other than the United States grew strongly, and this trend contributed to overall international air cargo volumes being about four per cent higher through October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This was lower than the double-digit growth seen in 2024 during the peak of e-commerce shipment expansion, but it still reflected the sector’s ability to adapt and grow amid changing conditions.

Modest air cargo growth expected in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the International Air Transport Association projects that global air cargo volumes will grow by about 2.6 per cent. This forecast is based on the expectation that the market forces that supported demand in 2025, such as diversification of trade routes and strong demand in non-US markets will continue to play a role in the year ahead.

Air freight rates remain stable through the year
On the pricing side, data from the Freightos Air Index showed that air cargo rates did not experience dramatic swings in 2025. Instead, rates followed familiar seasonal patterns. Prices rose after the Lunar New Year, stayed relatively steady through the summer, and increased again around the peak season in the fourth quarter. Overall, rates remained close to 2024 levels despite the shifts in demand and volume across different markets.

Capacity adjustments help balance supply and demand
The reason for this relative stability in pricing was the rapid adjustment of capacity by carriers. As demand on the transpacific routes declined, airlines quickly removed capacity from those lanes. They then redeployed that capacity to other routes where demand was rising, particularly between Asia and Europe. This ability to shift aircraft and capacity more fluidly helped to balance supply and demand, and prevented significant price spikes or dramatic rate declines.

Mixed rate trends across major air cargo lanes
When viewing specific lanes, the report noted that rates from China to the United States and from China to Europe were slightly higher overall in 2025, with increases of about 1 per cent and 2 per cent respectively compared with 2024. However, rates later in the year were marginally weaker in the second half, reflecting the rebalancing of capacity in response to changing flows. In Southeast Asia, some air freight rates rose significantly in the first half of the year, but were lower in the second half, again showing how carriers responded to shifting demand by adjusting where they offered space.

Policy changes may affect air cargo flows ahead
The report also highlighted future policy developments that could influence the market. Countries in the European Union have signalled intentions to close their own de minimis exemptions by 2027, and possibly as early as 2026. The United Kingdom has set a deadline of 2029 to end its de minimis rule. If these changes happen, they could cause short-term dips in volumes on certain lanes. However, the report suggested that e-commerce shipments are unlikely to disappear from air freight altogether, even with these policy shifts.

Air cargo enters 2026 on a stable footing
In summary, the air cargo sector showed resilience through 2025, adapting to trade policy changes and shifting demand patterns. Volumes recovered even after major regulatory shifts, and demand grew on several major international lanes. Rates stayed close to the levels seen in the previous year, helped by rapid redeployment of capacity. As the industry moves into 2026, modest growth is projected, building on the patterns established in the year before.