AI cargo boom to shift to ‘hyper replacement’: Boeing

Darren Hulst, vice president of Commercial Marketing at Boeing, presented the company’s 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast at a media briefing during The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) Air Cargo Forum in Miami recently. He spoke from the 777-8 Freighter Immersive Theatre on the Boeing booth in the exhibition hall, which is built as a cross-section of a widebody freighter’s main deck.

In the question-and-answer session that followed, The STAT Trade Times had two questions for Hulst. The first was about how much of the recent surge in air cargo demand rests on the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom. The second was about how Boeing arrived at the number of 777 Freighters it wants to build under an exemption from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

From hyper growth to hyper replacement
Hyperscalers are pouring money into data centres, but there are growing doubts about how long that pace can last. Asked by The STAT Trade Times whether Boeing was being cautious about its freighter demand projections, given the possibility of a pullback in data centre construction, Hulst said AI had so far worked in air cargo’s favour.

“I think in many ways the AI impact to air cargo has been an upside surprise. So, it’s been a big tailwind for demand,” he said. “I also think that as we look at how much demand that has driven, we’re conscious of the fact that it may not be like this forever.”

Referring to forecast data he had presented on the growth in AI-related demand, Hulst argued that the cargo opportunity would not disappear when the build-out matures, because the hardware inside data centres has to be replaced regularly.

“Once you get to a mature level, if there is such a thing in AI, you’re also going to have the refreshment cycle in these data centres because the life of a server or whatever goes into that data centre is generally three to four years. So, all of that replenishment is air cargo again,” he said.

“So, I think we might shift from a hyper growth to a hyper replacement.”

Hulst said Boeing’s forecasting already takes this into account. “We don’t expect 20 percent or 30 percent growth from here on out,” he said.

He added that what drives air cargo changes over time but its importance does not. “The elements that make up some of these trends has evolved. But one thing that stayed the same is how important air cargo is. So, I think we try to take a moderate view and maybe in some cases, a conservative view of that when we look at how we think about long-term demand.”

Why 35 more 777Fs
Production of the current 777F is due to end on 31 December 2027. Boeing has asked the FAA for an exemption to build 35 more aircraft over the three years to 31 December 2030. The STAT Trade Times asked Hulst how Boeing arrived at that number.

He said settling on 35 was “a little bit of art, a little bit of science.”

“One, we didn’t want to over ask in terms of the number of aeroplanes that we could do,” he said.

The bigger reason was the production changeover. “You got to remember that we’re also in the process of cutting over our production to 777X, the 777-9 and ultimately the 777-8 freighter. So, if we did more, we would probably be disrupting our ability to actually produce the next generation aeroplanes, which is really an area that we’re obviously intensely focused on.”

He described the number as a balance “between near-term satisfying market demand and long-term making sure that the 777X is there in the market.”

Pressed by The STAT Trade Times on whether Boeing might complete the 35 additional freighters well before the exemption period ends on 31 December 2030, Hulst did not commit to a timeline. “I don’t have the details on exactly when we would end production, but I would say it’s safe to say that we’re not going to draw out the build of those additional aircraft.”

The 20-year view
Boeing’s 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast expects global air cargo traffic to grow 3.5 percent a year, which would double it by 2045 compared with 2025. To carry that demand, Boeing projects the world’s freighter fleet will grow 2.6 percent a year to reach 4,010 aircraft by 2045, with 2,930 new and converted freighter deliveries over the forecast period. According to the forecast, dedicated freighters will carry more than 50 percent of global air cargo traffic by 2045, and integrators will account for 25 percent. The forecast comes out every two years as a supplement to Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook and covers trade trends, regional market developments and freighter fleet needs over the next 20 years.

Boeing says economic fundamentals underpin its outlook. It expects global real GDP to grow 2.6 percent a year over the next 20 years, with world trade growing 2.4 percent and industrial production 2.1 percent. On top of these, the forecast points to supply chain diversification as a factor reshaping air cargo flows, as geopolitical uncertainty and changing trade policies push companies to spread manufacturing and sourcing across more locations. In 2017, China accounted for more than two-thirds of US air import volumes from East Asia. By 2025, its share was slightly more than one-third, and other Northeast and Southeast Asian markets together had grown to nearly two-thirds. Boeing expects East Asia–North America, the world’s largest air cargo flow, to nearly double by 2045. It expects South Asia–East Asia to be the fastest-growing international market, with traffic rising 3.2 times by 2045

The forecast names AI as another driver, along with e-commerce growth. Investment in AI is creating demand for semiconductors, computing equipment and communications hardware, much of which needs reliable, time-sensitive transport. The forecast cites International Air Transport Association (IATA) figures showing that more than 70 percent of AI-related goods moved by air in 2025. AI-related manufacturing and data centre investment are adding demand on the East Asia–North America and East Asia–Europe trade lanes, and within East Asia and Oceania. Boeing says these trends favour dedicated freighters, which give operators network flexibility and the ability to carry what passenger networks may not, including hazardous, outsized, high-value and time-sensitive shipments. With freighters expected to keep carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic, Boeing sees a continuing need for both new-production and converted aircraft.