Softening growth in air cargo tonnages and rates: WorldACD
Overall average worldwide air cargo rates of $2.65 per kilo have begun the year 13% higher than this time last year.
Total worldwide air cargo tonnages at the start of 2025 recorded only two percent year-on-year (YoY) growth in week 1 (December 30 to January 5).
"A comparison with the previous year is less straightforward due to the seasonal drop this time of the year as well as the impact of some severe weather conditions, mainly in the U.S.," says the latest update from WorldACD Market Data.
Air cargo finished 2024 at its lowest full-month growth in December with global tonnages around six percent higher than in the final month of 2023.
Average full-market rates in December were around seven percent higher YoY, which is half of the growth reported in September. "This means tonnage growth for both November (eight percent) and December ( six percent) had softened to single-digit figures, possibly indicating the beginning of a new more moderate growth trend. This does not come as a surprise, because Q4 was the first quarter of 2023 showing strong growth, so we are now comparing with a higher base."
Average global spot rates have started the year 22 percent above their equivalent levels a year ago, thanks to a 23 percent YoY increase from Asia-Pacific origins and a 59 percent rise from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins as the relative strength of demand and pricing from those two regions last year looks set to continue into 2025, the update added.
"With global contract rates up by a modest six percent YoY in the first week, overall average worldwide air cargo rates of $2.65 per kilo have begun the year 13 percent higher than this time last year based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates.
Ex-Asia Pacific demand remains strong, but growth rate decelerating
Tonnages from Asia Pacific origins in December were significantly higher than every other month of 2024, apart from November – reflecting a significant ramp up in tonnages in the final two months of 2024. "Indeed, quarterly data indicate that tonnages from Asia Pacific origins were still six percent higher in Q4 202 compared with Q3, and 11 percent higher than their levels in Q42023."
Transatlantic westbound rates soar
One market that has seen a significant increase in spot rates in the final two months of 2024 is the transatlantic westbound market where the usual seasonal drop in passenger bellyhold capacity from late October was exacerbated by shifts in freighter capacity to Asia Pacific markets, driving up load factors.
Spot rates from Europe origins to North America were up by almost 50 percent YoY to $2.95 per kilo in the final week of 2024 after hitting a peak of $3.88 per kilo in week 50, the update added.
