Rates hold firm despite early November tonnage dip: WorldACD

Global average air cargo rates have remained firm and on a slight seasonal upwards trajectory going into the first few days of November despite a week-on-week drop in tonnages, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.

"Looking at the last two weeks combined, overall worldwide tonnages are more or less the same as the previous two weeks and their levels this time last year although volumes are now significantly higher ex-Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East than in the equivalent period last year."

Weekly analysis
Preliminary figures for week 44 (October 30 to 5 November 5) show a three percent decrease in tonnages and a slight increase in global average rates compared with the previous week, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. "Throughout October, tonnages have followed a broadly similar pattern as they did this time last year although the week-over-week decrease in week 44 last year was significantly more pronounced (seven percent)."

Comparing weeks 43 and 44 this year with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages were flat, while rates increased by two percent and capacity was slightly lower (two percent) than the combined total in weeks 41 and 42.

Regional story
Tonnages on the big Asia Pacific to North America lane recorded a nine percent increase with strong increases also from Asia Pacific to Middle East & South Asia (up six percent), and from Africa to Europe (+10 percent) – the latter consistent with the seasonal perishables trade. "Conversely, there was a steep drop in tonnages (down eight percent) from Central & South America to Europe while outbound tonnages from Middle East & South Asia took a major hit."

On the pricing side, there were small to modest increases in rates, on a 2Wo2W basis, on a number of key flows including Asia Pacific to Europe (up three percent) and Middle East & South Asia (up three percent). These were balanced out by declines in a number of flows including a five percent decline to Asia Pacific, ex-Europe and ex-North America.

Year-on-Year perspective
After many months of reporting year-on-year tonnage declines, on a global and regional basis, overall global volumes are now on a par with their levels this time last year, and tonnages from a number of origin regions are now significantly above their equivalent levels. "Chargeable weight in weeks 43 and 44 was up nine percent ex-Africa, up eight percent ex-Asia Pacific and ex-Middle East & South Asia, and up six percent ex-Central & South America. There were significant decreases in tonnages ex-North America (-12 percent) and ex-Europe (down nine percent)."

Overall available capacity has increased by nine percent compared with last year as passenger air services continue to return to the market with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up 29 percent. Other significant YoY capacity increases can be observed ex-Middle East & South Asia (+11 percent) and ex-Africa (up nine percent).

Worldwide average rates are currently 27 percent below their levels this time last year at $2.41 per kilo in week 44 although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (up 32 percent compared to November 2019).