Q4 air cargo demand so far exceeds last year’s levels: WorldACD

Global air cargo demand in the fourth quarter (Q4) period so far has been stronger than tonnages in the equivalent period last year, and average rates have continued their gradual post-summer rise, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.

"Nevertheless, more than halfway through the market’s traditionally buoyant final quarter, there are few signs of a strong peak season with demand patterns so far broadly mirroring last year’s disappointing Q4 and only moderately ahead in overall tonnage terms."

The improvement compared with last year is more a reflection of the unusually soft demand in Q4 last year while it has held up slightly better this year. "One big difference compared with last year is a recovery of tonnages ex-Asia Pacific compared with last winter’s soft ex-Asia volumes while tonnages ex-North America and ex-Europe remain down year on year."

Weekly analysis
Weekly analysis indicates that overall worldwide tonnages have remained broadly flat since the middle of October with preliminary figures for week 46 (November 13-19) showing stable tonnages compared with the previous week and a three percent increase in global average rates, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

"Within that flat global tonnage performance there were significant regional variations including a seven percent increase ex-Central & South America and tonnages up six percent from there to both North America and Europe (and corresponding rates rising four percent and five percent, respectively)."

The 2Wo2W changes were more significant on the pricing side where the overall three percent increase was largely driven by a five percent rise in rates ex-Asia Pacific including seven percent increases to both North America and Europe.

Preliminary WorldACD data indicate 11 percent and nine percent increases from Shanghai to Europe and the USA, respectively.

Year-on-year perspective
On a global and regional basis, volumes continue to increase compared to their levels this time last year, now standing four percent higher, the update added. Tonnages from a number of origin regions are significantly higher including upex-Asia Pacific (up 17 percent), and ex-Central & South America (up nine percent).

Overall available capacity has increased by 16 percent YoY with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up by 40 percent. Almost all other regions are also showing double-digit percentage YoY capacity increases, the update added.

Worldwide average rates are currently 23 percent below their levels this time last year at an average of $2.52 per kilo in week 46 although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (+38 percent compared to November 2019).