Peak season tonnages up 3% year-on-year: WorldACD

Worldwide air cargo demand has rebounded significantly above last year’s levels, driven by strong export volumes from China.

Preliminary tonnages for November increased five percent year on year and were up one percent on the previous month, taking combined tonnages for the peak period October and November around three percent higher than last year, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.

"Although demand slipped slightly in the first full week of December compared with the previous week, and overall worldwide prices levelled off, air cargo rates ex-Asia Pacific on the big head-haul lanes to North America and Europe remain significantly above their levels two or three weeks ago, thanks to a surge in demand ex-China."

Weekly analysis
Preliminary figures for week 49 (December 4-10) show a two percent decrease in tonnages and close to stable global average rates, compared with the previous week, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD data. "Tonnages have followed a similar pattern as they did this time last year, showing a slight weakening compared to the previous week, after a quick recovery from the seasonal post-Thanksgiving dip, although this year’s recovery was quicker and stronger than last year."

Comparing weeks 48 and 49 this year with the preceding two weeks, overall tonnages increased one percent and overall global average rates were up three percent with stable capacity. "Looking at regional developments, on a 2Wo2W basis, the impact of the post-Thanksgiving recovery is clearly visible ex-North America to, respectively, Central & South America (+13 percent), Asia Pacific (+12 percent) and Europe (up five percent)."

On the pricing side, the strong increases in recent weeks ex-Asia Pacific have continued (up five percent) on a 2Wo2W basis with a big jump to North America (eight percent) and Europe (six percent), the update added. "Most notably, average rates increased 13 percent ex-Europe to Central & South America (2Wo2W)."

Year-on-year perspective
On a global basis, volumes in weeks 48 and 49 remain above their levels this time last year (three percent), driven mostly by a 14 percent increase ex-Asia Pacific. "There remain significant decreases in tonnages ex-North America (six percent) and ex-Europe (five percent) although these are far less severe than the deficits reported in previous weeks, most notably ex-North America."

Overall available capacity has increased by 12 percent compared with last year with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up 26 percent.

Worldwide average rates are currently 18 percent below their levels this time last year at an average of $2.63 per kilo although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (47 percent compared to December 2019).