No upswing in air cargo demand at the start of 2023: WorldACD
Average rates held firm in the first week of 2023, showing an increase of +1 percent compared with the previous week.
Global air cargo tonnages have shown no sign yet of a post-holiday season recovery, whereas last year there was already an upswing by the end of the first week, the latest preliminary figures from WorldACD Market Data indicate, consistent with a continued softening of market conditions.
Figures for week 1 (2 to 8 January) show worldwide tonnages to be stable compared with the previous week, while last year in the same period an increase of +4 percent was observed. The underlying trend, therefore, seems to be a global weakening of demand. However, average rates held firm in the first week of 2023, showing an increase of +1 percent compared with the previous week, whereas last year a substantial decrease was recorded of -5 percent.
Comparing weeks 52 and 1 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), tonnages decreased -27 percent below their combined total in weeks 50 and 51, with a -5 percent decrease in capacity, while average worldwide rates declined -3 percent – based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
In this two-week period, tonnages were significantly down between all regions, as is common this time of year. Notable decreases were recorded between Europe and Central & South America (-34 percent eastbound, -44 percent westbound), between Europe and North America (-34 percent eastbound, -42 percent westbound), between Europe and Africa (southbound
-38 percent, northbound -27 percent) and between Europe and Asia Pacific (-34 percent eastbound, -15 percent westbound).
Year-on-Year perspective
Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 52 and 1 was down -21 percent compared with the equivalent period last year, at -1 percent lower capacity. Notably, tonnages ex-North America are down by -29 percent, and ex-Asia Pacific tonnages are -26 percent below their strong levels this time last year. But there were also double-digit percent year-on-year drops on tonnages outbound from Europe (-18 percent) and Middle East & South Asia (-12 percent).
Overall capacity has fallen slightly (-1 percent) compared to the previous year and is down from Asia Pacific (-11 percent), Central & South America (-5 percent) and Europe (-2 percent), whereas from Africa (+12 percent), North America (+4 percent) and Middle East & South Asia (+4 percent) capacity remains above its levels this time last year.
Worldwide rates are currently -28 percent below their unusually elevated levels this time last year at an average of US$3.08 per kilo in week 1, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels.
