IBA forecasts oversupply of 737-800 P2F aircraft

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, has indicated signals of potential oversupply of the Boeing 737-800 passenger to freighter (P2F) aircraft with 60 conversions forecast for this year alone.

IBA has highlighted data from its aviation intelligence platform IBA Insight, which shows that the 737-800 has been converted at a faster rate than any other P2F programme. In the six years since the first conversions, the 737-800 P2F has grown rapidly to 200 aircraft. Comparatively, it took the 757-200 P2F and 767-300ER P2F fleets 15 years to reach this size.

"The total 737-800 P2F fleet is on course to surpass the 757-200 P2F fleet of 311 aircraft, which IBA believes suggests a risk of oversupply based on the rapid fleet growth. Indeed, the 737-800 continues to lead the narrowbody conversion market with conversions of the A321-200 remaining steady as expected with 20 planned for this year."

In the widebody market, Boeing 767-300ER conversions continue to outpace A330-300s, which IBA Insight forecasts to be 30 and seven, respectively in 2023.

"IBA’s ISTAT-certified senior appraisers provided an update on cargo traffic, capacity and load factors. They highlighted that in the first quarter of 2023, available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs) were two percent below 2019 levels but IBA forecasts they will be four percent above 2019 levels at the start of 2024."

IBA also forecasts that load factors will return to pre-Covid levels as capacity recovers through 2023.

Boeing is expecting 1,300 standard-body conversions like the 737-800 BCF and 555 widebody conversions like the 767-300 BCF over the next 20 years, and approximately half of the global demand for conversions is expected to come from Asia and Africa including India.