Global tonnages hold up better than last year: WorldACD

Worldwide air cargo demand patterns have continued to broadly follow last year’s seasonal trend into the final full week of November including a significant dip in outbound tonnages from North America linked to last week’s Thanksgiving celebrations, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.

"Overall global tonnages have held up better than this time last year, and outbound yields from Asia Pacific have continued to rise, week on week (WoW), whereas they were flat or declining in the equivalent period in 2022."

Weekly analysis
Preliminary figures for week 47 (November 20-26) show a three percent decrease in tonnages and a two percent increase in global average rates compared with the previous week based on more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Tonnages have followed a similar pattern as they did this time last year although the week-over-week decrease in week 47 last year was significantly stronger (down eight percent).

Comparing weeks 46 and 47, combined, this year with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages fell two percent while rates increased five percent and capacity was stable. "The decrease was mainly caused by the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA (November 23), which caused tonnages ex-North America to slump by 10 percent(2Wo2W), exactly the same as this time last year."

The impact of Thanksgiving is clearly visible ex-North America to Europe (-16 percent) and Asia Pacific (-10 percent). Other notable decreases were recorded ex-Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific (-26 percent), ex-Middle East & South Asia to Europe (down six percent) and ex-Central & South America to North America (down five percent). Positive developments were seen ex-Africa to Europe (up seven percent) and ex-Europe to Central & South America (up six percent).

"On the pricing side, most of the main origin regions saw record increases in average outbound rates, on a 2Wo2W basis, most notably ex-Asia Pacific (up seven percent), showing a jump in rates to, respectively, North America (up nine percent) and Europe (up eight percent). The only (slightly) negative changes were seen ex-Europe to Middle East & South Asia (down two percent) and ex-Central & South America to North America (down one percent)."

Year-on-year perspective
On a global basis, volumes remain above their levels this time last year, up two percent. Tonnages from a number of origin regions are now significantly above their levels in weeks 46 and 47 last year, including up 13 percent ex-Asia Pacific, up six percent ex-Africa and up five percent ex-Central & South America.

"Overall available capacity has increased 14 percent compared with last year with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up 40 percent. "Other regions that also show double-digit percentage YoY capacity increases are ex-Central & South America (+14 percent) and ex-Middle East & South Asia (+11 percent)."

Worldwide average rates are currently 21 percent below their levels this time last year at an average of $2.59 per kilo in week 47, although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (+42 percent compared to November 2019), the update added.