Global air cargo volumes rise in January despite China e-commerce drop

Global air cargo volumes rose seven per cent year on year in January 2026, supported by an early Lunar New Year, but the market faced pressure from a decline in China’s e-commerce exports for the first time since January 2022, according to Xeneta.

The increase in demand marked the strongest growth in global chargeable weight since January 2025 and came at a time when capacity rose by five per cent year on year. As volumes grew faster than capacity, the global dynamic load factor increased by one percentage point to 57 per cent, indicating higher capacity utilisation across the air cargo market.

Freight rates also showed signs of stabilisation. Global air cargo spot rates declined by just one per cent year on year in January to USD 2.56 per kg, easing the sharper price falls seen in recent months.

However, Xeneta cautioned against reading too much into the January performance. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said January is always difficult to interpret because of the Lunar New Year and the disruption it causes to normal shipping patterns. He noted that the Lunar New Year began later in 2026 than in 2025, meaning some of the strength seen in January was likely linked to the calendar rather than a clear improvement in underlying demand.

Van de Wouw also said movements in air cargo rates during January may reflect broader economic factors rather than pure demand. Air freight rates are typically quoted in local currencies, and a weaker US dollar can make global averages appear stronger when converted back into dollars.

A key concern for the air cargo market is the slowdown in e-commerce exports from China and Hong Kong. China Customs data for December showed low-value and e-commerce exports fell nine per cent year on year, marking the first decline since January 2022. E-commerce accounts for an estimated 20 to 25 per cent of global air cargo volumes, making this trend significant for airlines and freight forwarders.

The decline was most pronounced on China–US routes, where e-commerce exports fell by more than 50 per cent for the third consecutive month in December, following the introduction of the US de minimis ban. For the full year 2025, China-to-US e-commerce exports were down 28 per cent compared with the previous year.

While Chinese e-commerce platforms have increased their focus on Europe to offset weaker demand from the US, growth on this corridor has also slowed. China-to-Europe e-commerce volumes grew by around eight per cent in December, compared with growth of 54 per cent during the first 11 months of 2025. Excluding Russia, e-commerce sales from China to the rest of Europe fell by 23 per cent year on year.

Van de Wouw said this confirmed a trend that had been developing since October, warning that continued weakness in e-commerce demand could affect growth plans across the air cargo sector, including investments linked to freighter conversions.

Regulatory changes are also adding pressure to e-commerce-driven air cargo demand. Measures such as US de minimis bans, the European Union’s proposed processing fee and new rules in Japan and Thailand are expected to create additional friction in cross-border trade.

Developments in ocean shipping remain another factor influencing air freight demand. Some container shipping lines have begun testing or resuming transits through the Suez Canal, raising the possibility of cargo shifting back from air to sea. However, Xeneta said a rapid shift is unlikely in the first quarter of 2026 due to ongoing diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, long transit times and operational challenges in reallocating capacity.

At the corridor level, most air cargo spot rates declined year on year in January. The steepest falls were seen on Southeast Asia to North America and Southeast Asia to Europe routes, where rates dropped by more than ten per cent as capacity continued to expand. Northeast Asia to Europe rates fell six per cent, while Northeast Asia to North America saw a smaller decline of three per cent due to the removal of freighter capacity.

An exception was the Transatlantic westbound corridor, where spot rates rose three per cent year on year despite a decline in volumes. Xeneta said this was partly linked to a temporary rise in demand following a US tariff threat on European imports, which was later withdrawn.

Overall, Xeneta said uncertainty around e-commerce demand and ocean shipping conditions will continue to shape air cargo volumes and rates in the coming months, with clearer signals expected only towards the end of the first quarter of 2026.