Global air cargo volumes fall 7% ahead of LNY holiday

Global airfreight tonnage declined by 7 per cent in week 7, ending 15 February, after five consecutive weeks of growth, as seasonal factors weighed on demand, according to the latest data from WorldACD Market Data. The drop came after flower shipments for Valentine’s Day were completed and global trade slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which began on 17 February.

Compared with the previous week, tonnage fell in all regions. Central and South America recorded the sharpest decline, down 24 per cent, after flower exports from the region peaked in early February. Africa saw a 5 per cent weekly drop in outbound volumes, linked to the end of the pre-Valentine’s Day flower export surge from Kenya and Ethiopia. The fall in global flower exports accounted for one third of the overall worldwide decline.

Capacity trends showed a mixed picture. Africa and Central and South America were the only regions to record lower capacity compared with the previous two-week period. Overall capacity in the fortnight from 2 to 15 February was 2 per cent higher, with increases in all other origin regions. North America recorded a 6 per cent rise, mainly linked to recovery after winter storms.

Compared with the same period last year, global capacity was up 10 per cent over the last two weeks. Asia Pacific and Middle East and South Asia recorded increases of 18 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. These gains were largely driven by the pre-Lunar New Year rush, as the holiday began more than two weeks later this year than in 2025, resulting in double-digit annual growth.

On a year-on-year basis, global tonnage in week 7 was 7 per cent higher. Growth was led by Asia Pacific, up 22 per cent, and Middle East and South Asia, up 9 per cent. Tonnage rose 4 per cent from Africa and 1 per cent from Central and South America. Volumes from North America were flat, while Europe recorded an 8 per cent decline.

Airfreight rates continued to edge up. Global average pricing increased by 2 per cent week on week to USD 2.45 per kilo, which is 7 per cent higher than the same period last year. Year-on-year rate trends differed by region. Rates from Europe were up 12 per cent, while Asia Pacific and Africa both recorded 7 per cent increases. In contrast, rates from Middle East and South Asia fell 10 per cent, Central and South America declined 6 per cent, and North America dropped 2 per cent. However, seasonal events are affecting traffic patterns, making it difficult to identify clear long-term trends.

Within Asia Pacific, total tonnage fell 5 per cent compared with week 6, as pre-Lunar New Year momentum slowed. Chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to the United States rose 1 per cent, supported by higher volumes from Southeast Asia. Malaysia recorded a 27 per cent increase and Vietnam rose 10 per cent, possibly due to continued front-loading ahead of the holiday. In contrast, volumes from China and Hong Kong fell by 1 per cent and 6 per cent respectively. Japan’s exports to the United States declined by 3 per cent, linked to the National Foundation holiday on 11 February.

Shipments from Asia Pacific to Europe declined 2 per cent week on week, with lower volumes from China and Hong Kong, down 2 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Japan’s exports to Europe fell 5 per cent. South Korea and Malaysia recorded higher volumes to Europe, rising 7 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, possibly reflecting final shipments before the holiday.

In the opposite direction, chargeable weight from North America to Asia Pacific dropped 5 per cent, while volumes from Europe to Asia Pacific fell 8 per cent, also linked to the Lunar New Year slowdown.

From the Middle East and South Asia region, airfreight volumes declined 3 per cent week on week in the period leading up to Ramadan on 17 February, which coincided with the start of Lunar New Year. Year on year, the region recorded 9 per cent growth. Shipments to Europe rose 5 per cent week on week, driven mainly by higher volumes from Dubai, up 17 per cent, and Sri Lanka, up 11 per cent, while India remained flat. Compared with the same period last year, volumes to Europe were up 13 per cent, led by strong growth from Dubai, Sri Lanka, Colombo and India.

However, volumes from the region to the United States fell 8 per cent week on week, with all origins reporting lower chargeable weight. Bangladesh recorded a 36 per cent drop and Sri Lanka fell 24 per cent. Despite this, year-on-year volumes to the United States were up 10 per cent, with double-digit growth across most origins except Sri Lanka.