Global air cargo tonnages rebound quickly than last year: WorldACD

Global air cargo tonnages have rebounded more quickly than last year following the annual Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., regaining the two percent lost last week.

Prices, ex-Asia Pacific, continue to rise strongly, particularly on the big headhaul lanes to North America and Europe, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.

Weekly analysis
Preliminary figures for week 48 (November 27 to 3 December 3) show a two percent increase in tonnages and a one percent increase in global average rates compared with the previous week, based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. "Tonnages have followed a similar pattern as they did this time last year, although this year demand has already recovered from the seasonal post-Thanksgiving dip, while in the equivalent week last year, global tonnages fell further following a steeper decline the previous week."

Comparing weeks 47 and 48 this year with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages fell one percent while overall global average rates continued to rise with a five percent increase at a slight capacity decrease (one percent). "The minor decrease in tonnages, on a 2Wo2W basis, was mainly due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.(November 23), which caused tonnages ex-North America to slow down by eight percent (2Wo2W) compared with -14 percent this time last year."

The impact of Thanksgiving is clearly visible ex-North America to Asia Pacific (-10 percent) and to Europe (down nine percent) with inbound tonnages ex-Europe and ex-Central & South America to North America down five percent.

On the pricing side, the strong increases noted last week ex-Asia Pacific have continued (up seven percent) on a 2Wo2W basis with a further big jump to North America and Europe (both up eight percent) as tonnages ex-China continue their strong rebound since the second quarter of this year, and especially since September, which has led to double-digit month-on-month percentage rises in prices in recent weeks to North America and Europe, the update added.

Year-on-year perspective
On a global basis, volumes in weeks 47 and 48 remain above their levels this time last year, up three percent, driven mostly by a 14 percent increase ex-Asia Pacific with more-modest increase ex-Africa (up five percent), ex-Middle East & South Asia (up two percent) and ex-Central & South America (up two percent). "There remain significant decreases in tonnages ex-North America (down eight percent) and ex-Europe (down five percent) although these are far less severe than the deficits reported in previous weeks, most notably ex-North America."

Overall available capacity has increased 15 percent compared with last year, with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up 40 percent. Other regions also show significant YoY capacity increases: ex-Africa (+11 percent), ex-Central & South America (+10 percent), ex-Middle East & South Asia (+10 percent), ex-North America (+10 percent) and ex-Europe (up nine percent).

Worldwide average rates are currently 19 percent below their levels this time last year at an average of $2.60 per kilo in week 48, although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (+43 percent compared to November 2019).