DHL report finds globalisation steady amid US–China decoupling

Globalisation remains at a historically high level despite rising geopolitical tensions, increasing US tariffs and growing uncertainty around global trade policies, according to the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 released by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. The report is based on more than nine million data points tracking international flows of trade, capital, information and people.

The report finds that the world’s level of globalisation stood at 25 percent in 2025, matching the record high first reached in 2022. It measures globalisation on a scale from 0 percent, where there are no cross-border flows, to 100 percent, where borders and distance have no impact.

John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, said globalisation continues to demonstrate its value even during uncertain times. He said countries and companies are not retreating behind national borders, and that global connections remain essential to address challenges such as poverty and climate change.

At the same time, the report notes that the current level of 25 percent shows the world is still far from being fully globalised, with many international flows having the potential to expand further if policy constraints are reduced.

Global trade grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the volatile Covid-19 period. The report says US importers accelerated shipments early in the year ahead of tariff increases. Although US imports later dropped below the previous year’s levels, rising Chinese exports to markets outside the United States helped sustain global trade volumes.

Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods also surged as countries and companies invested in AI infrastructure. According to WTO figures cited in the report, AI-related products accounted for 42 percent of goods trade growth during the first three quarters of 2025.

Looking ahead, the report expects recent US tariff increases to slow trade growth slightly in 2026 but not halt it. Global goods trade is projected to grow by an average of 2.6 percent per year through 2029, in line with the past decade.

One reason trade is expected to continue expanding is that most global trade does not involve the United States. In 2025, 13 percent of global imports went to the US, while 9 percent of exports originated from the country. The report also notes that many countries are pursuing new trade agreements to secure access to alternative markets.

Beyond trade, the report highlights mixed trends in other international flows. Capital flows remain strong, with multinational companies continuing to earn near-record shares of sales abroad. While announced greenfield foreign direct investment declined in 2025, overall FDI flows increased and cross-border mergers and acquisitions remained resilient.

Information flows, which delivered the largest gains in globalisation over the past two decades, have slowed and become more volatile since 2021. The report suggests geopolitical tensions and restrictions on data flows may be limiting further growth.

Meanwhile, people flows have fully recovered after the sharp decline during the Covid-19 pandemic. International travel, student mobility and migration have all reached record levels.

In the report’s country ranking, Singapore is again the world’s most globalised country, followed by Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Europe ranks as the most globalised region, ahead of North America and the Middle East and North Africa.

The report also highlights the continuing decoupling between the United States and China. Trade between the two countries accounted for 3.6 percent of global trade at its peak in 2015, but fell to 2.7 percent in 2024 and to 2.0 percent during the first three quarters of 2025. The share of international business investment between the two countries is even smaller, at less than 1 percent in 2025.

Despite these tensions, the report finds little evidence of the global economy splitting into rival blocs. Over the past decade, only 4 to 6 percent of global goods trade, greenfield FDI and cross-border mergers and acquisitions have shifted away from geopolitical rivals, with many of these flows moving to countries such as India and Vietnam.

The report also finds that the distance covered by international flows continues to increase. In 2025, traded goods travelled an average distance of 5,010 kilometres, the longest on record. The average distance for greenfield FDI projects also reached a record 6,250 kilometres.

Published regularly since 2011, the DHL Global Connectedness Report analyses 14 types of international flows and ranks the connectedness of 180 countries, representing 99.6 percent of global GDP and 99 percent of the world’s population. The 2026 edition was authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University’s Stern School of Business and commissioned by DHL.