Asia air cargo capacity tightens ahead of Lunar New Year, says Dimerco

Air cargo markets across the Asia-Pacific region are tightening ahead of the Lunar New Year, even as overall demand on long-haul routes to the US and Europe continues to ease, according to Dimerco Express Group’s February 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report.

The report said air freight demand from Asia to the US and Europe is softening as February begins, with only a limited pre-holiday uplift expected. E-commerce volumes have continued to slow since January, keeping spot air freight rates on transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes largely stable or under mild downward pressure. This reflects cautious demand conditions despite short-term seasonal shipping activity.

In Northeast Asia, pre–Lunar New Year shipments are providing temporary support to air cargo volumes, largely driven by high-tech cargo. However, the report noted that this strength is expected to fade quickly after the holiday period. In Taiwan, air cargo capacity is tight on several regional routes, prompting airlines to announce rate increases on services to destinations such as Singapore and Hanoi. While direct air services from Taiwan to the US remain stable, demand on routes to Southeast Asia is strong and capacity is constrained.

South Korea’s air freight market is showing mixed signals. Export volumes to the US have slowed and overall space availability is currently sufficient. However, capacity is expected to tighten from mid-January as high-tech shipments increase. On regional Asian routes, reduced flight frequencies by key carriers are keeping space constrained, particularly on services to Singapore, Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Taipei.

In China, air freight conditions vary by region but remain heavily influenced by the approaching Lunar New Year. In North China, overall capacity and rates are stable, with a brief pre-holiday demand increase expected to tighten space temporarily. In East China, a broad rate increase is anticipated in early February due to higher demand, although the report warned that rates are likely to fall sharply during and after the holiday period. Capacity is currently tight on routes to Singapore and Taipei, while some direct services to Penang are facing delays due to ground handling issues.

South China and Hong Kong are also seeing a build-up of air freight activity ahead of the holiday. The report said demand in South China is expected to rise due to early e-commerce stockpiling, followed by a significant drop during and after the Lunar New Year. Airlines may cancel flights in February in response to weaker post-holiday demand. In Hong Kong, air freight prices are stable for now, but capacity is tight on routes to Singapore and Thailand, with higher rates expected in the pre-holiday period.

Across Southeast Asia, air cargo capacity is tightening as exporters move goods ahead of factory shutdowns. In Malaysia, space is becoming constrained on routes to the US and Europe, with rising rates on long-haul services. Vietnam is experiencing strong pre-holiday demand, leading to tighter space and higher rates, particularly on US-bound routes. Thailand’s air freight market is also tightening, with stronger demand expected to push rates higher and limit available capacity as the month progresses.

In Singapore, some airlines are expected to cancel flights during the Lunar New Year period, which is likely to further tighten air cargo space. The report said this could add pressure to already constrained regional routes. In the Philippines, a pre-holiday shipping rush is expected to drive higher rates and tighter capacity, while Indonesia’s air freight market remains more balanced, with sufficient space and stable rates.

India’s air freight market is easing as demand normalises after the peak season. The report said carriers are adjusting schedules after the fourth quarter, which should improve space availability on long-haul routes. Improved winter weather is also supporting smoother operations as fog-related disruptions begin to ease. However, the report cautioned that airspace constraints linked to the Iranian region continue to affect some routings to the US, Europe and CIS markets, leading to longer transit times and potential delays.

In Australia, the report said early factory closures in February are prompting shippers to move cargo ahead of the Lunar New Year, resulting in tighter capacity and higher air freight rates during the holiday period.

Dimerco said the pre-Lunar New Year period has created a compressed planning window for air cargo shippers across Asia-Pacific. Capacity is tightening rapidly on several regional and long-haul routes, while demand remains uneven. Once factory closures begin, the report expects air freight volumes to soften again, increasing the risk of sudden shifts in space availability and rates in the weeks following the holiday.