Are trade wars shaking up global freighter fleets?

Global freighter operations are navigating turbulent trade policies and geopolitical risks, balancing capacity cuts with long-term fleet investments.

Air cargo has long been the invisible engine powering global trade, with freighters serving as its most reliable workhorses. But in an increasingly volatile geopolitical climate, even these lifelines are feeling the strain. Trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, have rattled air freight networks and forced operators to re-evaluate strategy amid fluctuating market patterns.

The transpacific air cargo corridor, in particular, remains at the epicentre of these disruptions. It has historically hosted the highest concentration of dedicated freighter aircraft. In the first week of May 2025, however, freighter capacity from Asia to North America plunged by 40 percent. Yet when China and the US reached a temporary tariff agreement, capacity rebounded by 27 percent within the week, based on Monday-to-Thursday comparisons with earlier weeks, according to data shared by Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting, Rotate.

The suspension of the US de minimis exemption has forced transpacific freighter operators into an unprecedented operational chess game.

Even beyond transpacific trade, geopolitical ripples continue to reshape air cargo routes. Despite a recent ceasefire, India and Pakistan have once again closed their airspace to one another until 5:29 am IST on June 24, 2025. “Both the Gulf and Asian carriers have resumed their full operations there, and there is no major backlog. However, some European carriers are still rerouting around Pakistani airspace, which means they are opting for the longer southern part of the Arabian Sea and that can add 40 to 80 minutes to transit times, which of course could affect the schedule downstream,” said Thomas Kempf, Senior Director, Airfreight Business Development, Flexport, in a recent Freight Market Update webinar by Flexport.

“ We observe that the global economy and especially trade are in the process of adjusting to new realities after Covid, but also the political tensions in the world in recent years. Trade is further diversifying, and new air cargo markets are benefiting, such as Vietnam and India.”
Georg Theis, Lufthansa Cargo

From Cathay Cargo’s perspective, Rajesh Menon, Regional Head of Cargo for South Asia, Middle East, and Africa, Cathay Cargo said, “From our region of South Asia, Middle East, and Africa’s perspective, we have noticed that the space to North America is once again constrained. However, from a network perspective, Cathay Cargo continues to perform strongly.”

“It is likely that supply chains will remain under pressure from current and unforeseen political, economic, or natural events. Such disruptions will continue to drive demand for the reliable, fast, flexible, and secure mode of air transport. We observe that the global economy and especially trade are in the process of adjusting to new realities after Covid, but also the political tensions in the world in recent years. Trade is further diversifying, and new air cargo markets are benefiting, such as Vietnam and India.

Regarding e-commerce shipments, we anticipate continued growth overall, with new complexities related to adjusting to international trade regulations and geopolitical uncertainties. Potential challenges include new customs rules, cross-border taxation schemes, or tariffs. To proactively manage these complexities, we engage with authorities and industry groups to ensure compliance,” said Georg Theis, Head of Network Management, Lufthansa Cargo.

Which aircraft were most affected?
Aevean data shows that during May 1–12, as trade tensions intensified, the number of underutilised large freighters (flying less than four block hours per day) spiked to 28 aircraft, an increase of around 10 per day compared to prior weeks.

The 747-400F, known for its relatively lower fuel efficiency, accounted for the largest share of this pullback, indicating operators’ preference to ground or scale back usage of less economical aircraft first. This trend reversed as tariff pressures eased, with freighter activity rebounding 22% by May 20, demonstrating the fleet's flexibility in responding to geopolitical and economic shifts.

“We closely track air cargo volumes and trade trends to spot growth areas, like the rising e-commerce demand in Central and Eastern Europe for faster, reliable logistics.”
Rajesh Menon, Cathay Cargo

According to Aevean’s latest capacity data, global utilisation of the Boeing 747-400F fell by 36% in early May compared to its April average, marking the sharpest decline among major widebody freighters. The more fuel-efficient 747-8F and 777-200F also saw drops of 33% and 22%, respectively, but their operations proved more resilient during the tariff-driven disruption.

“It depends on the type of freighter aircraft,” said Marco Bloemen, Managing Director and Co-Founder, Aevean, a strategy consulting firm. “As you can imagine, the older Boeing 747-400 freighter has taken the biggest hit, as it’s the least fuel-efficient. So in early May, we saw a drop in the deployment of that aircraft. But now, all aircraft types are starting to rebound.”

Offering an estimate on the economics of freighter operations, Alexis Boutet, Vice President and Global Head of Airfreight, Flexport, said: “After the short-term spike in Air mid-June to August due to 90-day pause on tariffs, we can expect freighter economics on the transpacific route to be challenged, specifically for smaller airplanes not meant to operate such long-haul routes or older tails.”

Are airlines redeploying or grounding the freighters?
The immediate response from operators was strategic rather than reactive. Rather than hastily redeploying aircraft to oversaturated markets, most carriers chose a calculated approach of temporary capacity reduction while assessing market conditions.

“What we expect to see very soon, starting in the second half of 2025 through 2026, is a wave of older freighters being retired from the market.”
Alexis Boutet, Flexport

Boutet of Flexport observed that most airlines and forwarders are taking a measured approach rather than reacting hastily to current transpacific market conditions. “The general sentiment, surprisingly, is that this is not the time for knee-jerk reactions or to suddenly pull massive capacity from the transpacific lane. Airlines recognise that May will be weak, so they’re selectively cancelling flights to adjust to lower demand and rate environment, but they haven’t abandoned their slots. They're simply holding back temporarily and waiting to see how the situation develops. The plan is to reinstate capacity by mid-June in anticipation of a volume rebound. So overall, there’s no panic, just a cautious, strategic pause.”

“Cathay Cargo operates a robust freighter fleet of 20 Boeing 747 aircraft, including 14 B747-8Fs and six B747-400ERFs. This is complemented by significant belly cargo capacity on Cathay Pacific’s passenger fleet, as well as additional capacity through the Cathay Group’s low-cost carrier, HK Express. The expansion of our passenger operations provided a substantial boost to our overall cargo capacity by offering additional belly space for freight shipments. This enhancement was instrumental in maintaining elevated cargo volumes throughout the recent year,” said Menon of Cathay Cargo while discussing the strategic utilisation of dedicated freighters and belly freight.

“On the rates front, the situation remains challenging. Many carriers are offering highly competitive rates, not just scheduled carriers but also new players who are putting additional pressure on pricing and capacity. This competitive landscape requires us to stay agile and continually innovate to maintain our edge,” added Menon.

Theis of Lufthansa Cargo said, “The airfreight industry is and remains a volatile sector, and the need for short-term transport solutions continues to increase. Our Ho Chi Minh (SGN) to Los Angeles (LAX) freighter is performing well. Thanks to our dense global network, our product portfolio, including various speed options, and the broad expertise within the company, Lufthansa Cargo is able to react very quickly to geopolitical events in order to continue to offer our customers reliable and fast transport solutions for their shipments.

Due to the dynamic, global environment, air cargo is expected to be in high demand. We have seen the effect of the Red Sea crisis and typhoons last year on the industry. Lufthansa Cargo tackles these challenges and opportunities with a dense global network, which we steer along our customers’ needs and thus following our purpose of ‘Enabling Global Business’.”

Will the cargo carriers invest in newer aircraft amid market volatility?
The question of whether cargo carriers will invest in newer aircraft amid current market volatility presents a complex strategic challenge. The de minimis suspension and broader trade policy uncertainties have fundamentally altered the risk-reward calculations that traditionally drive fleet expansion decisions in the air cargo sector.

“What we expect to see very soon, starting in the second half of 2025 through 2026, is a wave of older freighters being retired from the market,” said Boutet of Flexport. The economics just won’t support them. By 2027, we anticipate market normalisation, returning to healthy demand growth and freighter capacity better aligned with that demand.”

“For Lufthansa Cargo, sustainability and the reduction of our emissions are our corporate responsibility and part of our DNA for a long time already. Therefore, we are constantly examining where we can further reduce our emissions and make airfreight more sustainable. Thus, a modern fleet is inevitable to meet our ambitious sustainability goals. This is why we switched to a complete B777F long-haul fleet, which is the most efficient freighter aircraft type. Additionally, we have already ordered B777-8 freighters - the newest generation of Boeing wide-body freighters,” said Theis of Lufthansa Cargo.

“You don’t invest in a freighter for just one year, it’s a long-term strategic decision. The current challenge isn’t the appetite for freighters that remains strong, but rather the limited availability of aircraft deliveries.”
Marco Bloemen, Aevean

“We have placed a firm order for six next-generation Airbus A350 freighters, with the right to acquire an additional 20, scheduled for delivery starting in 2027. This investment reflects our commitment to modernising the fleet with fuel-efficient, high-capacity aircraft that meet evolving market and sustainability demands,” said Menon of Cathay Cargo.

“We’re facing market shocks, both upward and downward—but ultimately, the outlook must be long term,” said Bloemen of Aevean. “You don’t invest in a freighter for just one year, it’s a long-term strategic decision. The current challenge isn’t the appetite for freighters that remains strong, but rather the limited availability of aircraft deliveries. We’ve conducted long-term demand and supply forecasts to assess what the market could look like by 2028, 2030, and even 2035–2040. Right now, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) simply aren’t producing freighters at the scale the industry would like to see.”

According to Boeing’s orders and deliveries data as of April 30, 2025, the manufacturer has an unfilled backlog of 105 freighter aircraft. Of these, 74 are Boeing 777 freighters and 31 are Boeing 767-300 freighters. Boeing’s next-generation model, the 777-8 freighter, is expected to enter service in 2028. Meanwhile, Airbus is also facing production delays for its upcoming A350 freighter, with the entry-into-service date now postponed to the second half of 2027.

The current market conditions favour asset-light strategies where possible. Rather than committing to new aircraft purchases, many operators are also exploring extended lease arrangements and conversion programmes that offer greater flexibility.

Operational flexibility becomes a premium asset
The volatility demonstrated in recent trade policy changes has elevated operational flexibility as a critical capability for global freighter operators. Traditional operational models that optimised aircraft for specific routes or cargo types have proven vulnerable to sudden market shifts.

This capability demands sophisticated operational planning systems, flexible crew scheduling, and aircraft configurations that can serve multiple market segments.

“Lufthansa Cargo believes in being agile to meet the dynamic requirements of our customers, yet provide a stable, reliable, and high-quality network. With our own freighter fleet of 18 B777F and four A321F as well as belly capacities of Lufthansa Airlines, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, Discover Airlines, SunExpress, and soon ITA Airways, we are able to offer our customers up to 7,500 weekly flights to 350 worldwide destinations. We provide our customers diverse and efficient routing options via our multiple hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Vienna, Brussels, and soon Rome. Therefore, we can react quickly in deploying our freighters where needed and balance the requirements of our customers’ shipments and the needed aircraft types globally by additionally using Lufthansa Group’s belly capacities,” mentioned Theis of Lufthansa Cargo.

As geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global commerce, the air cargo industry finds itself at a crossroads. The industry's pivot toward operational flexibility, modern fuel-efficient fleets, and diversified routing strategies signals an evolution rather than a retreat.