Airbus forecasts 45% growth in global freighter fleet by 2045
Airbus forecasts air cargo will grow 3.3% annually over the next 20 years, nearly doubling global volumes.
Airbus’ 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast (GMF) projects the global dedicated freighter fleet will reach 3,420 aircraft over the next 20 years, a 45% increase. This includes 815 existing freighters and 2,605 additional aircraft.
Of these additional 2,605 freighters, 1,530 will be replacements and 1,075 will be for growth. The additional 2,605 will be split between 1,120 small aircraft, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies. Overall, of the 2,605 additional freighters, 1,670 will be conversions from passenger aircraft and 935 will be new-build freighters, according to an official release from Airbus.
World GDP and trade continue to drive air cargo growth. With long-term trade projected at a 2.7% CAGR, Airbus expects air cargo to expand at 3.3% annually over the next 20 years, nearly doubling global cargo volumes. The forecast reflects air cargo’s vital role, not only supporting economies but also linking remote communities, transporting essential and healthcare-critical goods, and fostering local business development in emerging markets.
After rapid cargo fleet growth during the pandemic, fuelled by an increase of passenger aircraft conversions into freighters and minimum retirement of previous generation freighters, Airbus forecasts that going forward, a large proportion of these older freighters will leave the fleet and be replaced by newer, more fuel efficient freighters such as the A350F or A320/A321 and A330 Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions.
Airbus also forecasts trade lanes, and therefore air cargo flows diversification, as more countries in the Asia-Pacific region become industrial centres. Likewise, GDP and demographic forecasts indicate that new countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, or Vietnam will emerge as major consumer economies in the coming decades. This will initiate a gradual shift in air cargo geography and the global air freight map.
Of the 2,605 freighters needed over the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific and North America will account for nearly two-thirds of demand, requiring 850 and 920 aircraft, respectively.
